The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
February's new orders for manufactured durable goods came in lower than expected at $268.4B, a -1.0% decline from last month compared with the Investing.com 0.6% estimate. The series is up 2.2% year-over-year (YoY), the smallest yearly increase since September 2020. If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were unchanged from last month, worse than the Investing.com 0.2% estimate, and up 1.7% YoY.
Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.
Lower interest rates and more liquidity are the keys to boosting confidence in the financial sector, but they impede the Fed's ability to fight inflation.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 191K new claims, down 1K from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 197K.
Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
Easing financial conditions globally have made Morgan Stanley “outright bullish” on growth stocks in Asia and emerging markets versus their value peers.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
As of March 20, the price of regular and premium gas were down 3 cents and 4 cents from the previous week, respectively. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.81 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.89. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.82 and is down 9.3% from last week.
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
This morning's release of the February existing home sales showed that sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million units from the previous month's 4.00 million, ending the 12-month streak of monthly declines. The latest number represents a 14.5% month-over-month increase, its largest since July 2020 and well above the Investing.com forecast of 5%. With that being said, existing home sales are down 22.6% compared to one year ago.
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
New research confirms the valuable role that short sellers play in correcting the valuations of overpriced stocks.
A TIPS is risky in the short term and riskless in the long run, which is precisely the opposite of, and complementary to, a T-bill, which is riskless in the short term but, because of reinvestment rate volatility, risky in the long run.
With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks.
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
Jamie Dimon and Janet Yellen were on a call Tuesday, when she floated an idea: What if the nation’s largest lenders deposited billions of dollars into First Republic Bank, the latest firm getting nudged toward the brink by a depositor panic
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
Following this week’s banking crisis and the return of government bailouts, investors and traders alike are once again calling for a Fed pivot.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February was down 0.3% to 110.0 from January's final figure of 110.3, marking the 11th consecutive MoM decline. Today's reading was consistent with the Investing.com forecast.
Portfolio manager Peeyush Mittal and research analyst Swagato Ghosh say India has a fiscal playbook to chart a path of stability and growth.
In a dovish move, the central bank raises rates by half a point.
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.4% and up 5.4% YoY. However after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales decreased by 0.8% and were down 0.6% YoY.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The latest manufacturing index came in at -23.2, up 1.1 from last month's -24.3, marking the index's seventh negative reading in a row.. The three-month moving average is now at -18.8, down from last month and the lowest since June 2020. The six-month outlook was down 9.7 points to -8.0. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.
Is upheaval in the banking sector the prelude to a financial crisis, or just the biggest bump yet on the road to restoring order to the economy? Stock investors clinging to hopes this too shall pass are having their tolerance for pain severely tested.
When markets react, consider a broader historical perspective before changing your financial course.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.524M crushed the Investing.com forecast of 1.340M. Building permits climbed 13.82% from January's revised figure of 1.339M, the largest monthly gain since July 2020.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.450M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.310M and is a 9.8% increase from the previous month's revised figure of 1.321M. Housing starts are down 18.4% compared to this time last year.
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
What our experts think about today's market action.
Credit Suisse’s problems revealed today stem from issues the company discussed last June in a profit warning.
The banking earthquake is sending shockwaves through the financial markets. The financial and economic aftershocks, soon to follow, are underappreciated and will prove worse than the earthquake.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (40) at 44, up 2 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last six months.
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February was released this morning. Headline sales came in slightly below forecast at -0.4% month-over-month. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -0.1% month-over-month, in line with the forecast.
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
101 Lesson of Structural growth versus recovery growth investing.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned Silicon Valley Bank’s failure shows cracks widening in global finance, joining other US billionaires raising the alarm on fallout from the lender’s collapse.
The morning's release of the February Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was at -0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from last month's 0.3% increase. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) was at 0.0% month-over-month, down from last month's 0.4% increase. Both headline and core PPI came in lower than their respective Investing.com forecasts, with headline expectations at 0.3% and core expectations at 0.4%.
We are currently seeing some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
I've updated our monthly workforceanalysis to include the latest employment report for February. The unemployment rate increased to 3.6%, and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 311K.
Some of the world’s top money managers are sitting on a windfall after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank spurred the biggest rally in US Treasuries since the early 1980s.
The headline number for February came in at 90.9, up 0.6 from the previous month, but still below the series average of 98.2. The index is at the 9th percentile in this series.
Why did Silicon Valley Bank fail?
Let's take a close look at February's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s strategy to speed up the central bank’s inflation-fighting efforts is unraveling in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.
Your clients need a hero – one who can help them navigate the uncertain world and keep them on track to living their best lives no matter what circumstances they face. That hero should be their financial advisor.
Let’s explore the barriers that have kept alts in an ivory tower, why they’re becoming mainstream, and how advisors and their clients can incorporate alts into their portfolios.
Can we aggressively position assets today that have the potential for strong growth in the next 24 months when a tuition bill is due, without exposing those assets to market risk?
My research confirms what academic theory predicts: There has been no historical alpha among dividend-paying stocks, including those with a history of increasing dividends. Investors are better served by “tilting” allocations to factors that have historically outperformed (e.g., value).
Silicon Valley Bank became the biggest US lender to fail in more than a decade, creating fears of contagion in tech and finance sectors in the US and around the world.
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Greg Becker sat in a red armchair at an invite-only conference in Los Angeles last week, legs crossed, one hand cutting through air.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of non-farm employment. February saw a 311,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%. The Investing.com forecast was for 205,000 jobs gained.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Head of Portfolio Strategy David Dali explains why it’s an opportune time to add emerging-market exposure.
We believe municipal bonds boast several key factors that position them as an attractive asset class in general, but especially so when markets are volatile.
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed could hike rates more and more often.
The bond market is doubling down on the prospect of a US recession after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of a return to bigger interest-rate hikes to cool inflation and the economy.
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
While 2023 has started on shaky ground for the municipal bond market, there are reasons to be optimistic for more stability ahead, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bond Research. She explains why California’s issues don’t reflect all states, and offers reasons for optimism.
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report, with data through January, is now available.
The question you are asking about AI (“Will AI replace me?”) is wrong. The right one is this…
The U.S. international trade in goods and services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$68.2B was better than the -68.9B Investing.com forecast, however it is the largest gap we have seen in the last 3 months.
Read our latest insight to learn why we believe this year's market rally is just speculation and how we are positioning our portfolios for a change in leadership.
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
The landscape for M&A and recruitment in the advisory profession will continue to be strong.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,687 for an annualized real return of 6.29%.
Recently, many market commentators have been preaching the message that fixed income investors should stick to a low duration strategy.
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
Machine learning shows great promise for empirical asset pricing and has the potential to improve our understanding of expected asset returns.
Any of the variable spending strategies I analyzed will reduce sequence risk in retirement and allow for greater initial spending rates, potentially greater average spending amounts, and a generally more efficient spenddown of assets than the baseline constant inflation-adjusted spending rule.
More women in senior roles will support the long-term success and sustainability of emerging markets.
Volatility/Downside Protection
Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
Sinology: Opportunity and Risk
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
Echoes Of '08? Don't Bank On It
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
The Crucial Questions
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Markets Again Under Pressure
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Durable Goods Orders Down 1.0% in February, Worse Than Forecast
February's new orders for manufactured durable goods came in lower than expected at $268.4B, a -1.0% decline from last month compared with the Investing.com 0.6% estimate. The series is up 2.2% year-over-year (YoY), the smallest yearly increase since September 2020. If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were unchanged from last month, worse than the Investing.com 0.2% estimate, and up 1.7% YoY.
Market Focus Moves from the Fed to Financial Crisis
Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.
Phase Two of the Fed Follies
Lower interest rates and more liquidity are the keys to boosting confidence in the financial sector, but they impede the Fed's ability to fight inflation.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K, Lower Than Expected
This morning's seasonally adjusted 191K new claims, down 1K from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 197K.
Taming Biases in High-Dividend Equity Strategies
Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
Alternative Investments Outlook Post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
Stocks Climb Ahead of Fed Meeting
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
Morgan Stanley Turns ‘Outright Bullish’ on Asian Growth Stocks
Easing financial conditions globally have made Morgan Stanley “outright bullish” on growth stocks in Asia and emerging markets versus their value peers.
Stocks Are Shrugging Off Bank Woes With Help From Hedge Funds
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Down 9.3% from Last Week
As of March 20, the price of regular and premium gas were down 3 cents and 4 cents from the previous week, respectively. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.81 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.89. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.82 and is down 9.3% from last week.
Incremental Progress Emerging in the Banking Sector Fallout
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Existing-Home Sales Surge in February, Ending 12-Month Streak of Declines
This morning's release of the February existing home sales showed that sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million units from the previous month's 4.00 million, ending the 12-month streak of monthly declines. The latest number represents a 14.5% month-over-month increase, its largest since July 2020 and well above the Investing.com forecast of 5%. With that being said, existing home sales are down 22.6% compared to one year ago.
Bank Crisis Survivors Remember How Fast the Dominoes Can Fall
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.
Two Sides of Healthcare, One Strong Investment Case
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
Sustainable Investing: Opportunistically Managing Risk
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
A Multi-Asset Perspective on Recent Bank Turmoil: Don’t Lose Sight of the Macro Story
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
New Evidence that Short Sellers Correct Overpriced Stocks
New research confirms the valuable role that short sellers play in correcting the valuations of overpriced stocks.
Riskless at Age 104
A TIPS is risky in the short term and riskless in the long run, which is precisely the opposite of, and complementary to, a T-bill, which is riskless in the short term but, because of reinvestment rate volatility, risky in the long run.
Bank Runs. The First Sign The Fed “Broke Something.”
With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks.
Another Unstable Finger
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
The Professor's Portfolio
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
How First Republic Bank Received a $30 Billion Lifeline
Jamie Dimon and Janet Yellen were on a call Tuesday, when she floated an idea: What if the nation’s largest lenders deposited billions of dollars into First Republic Bank, the latest firm getting nudged toward the brink by a depositor panic
Banking Sector Uncertainty Keeps Pressure on Stocks
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
Don’t Expect a Fed Pivot Just Yet
Following this week’s banking crisis and the return of government bailouts, investors and traders alike are once again calling for a Fed pivot.
CB LEI: Down 0.3% in February, Still Pointing to Risk of Recession
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February was down 0.3% to 110.0 from January's final figure of 110.3, marking the 11th consecutive MoM decline. Today's reading was consistent with the Investing.com forecast.
India’s Balancing Act
Portfolio manager Peeyush Mittal and research analyst Swagato Ghosh say India has a fiscal playbook to chart a path of stability and growth.
The ECB Hikes Rates Amid Financial Market Volatility
In a dovish move, the central bank raises rates by half a point.
European Banking Sector—Taking Stock After Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
The Big Four: February Real Retail Sales Down 0.8%
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.4% and up 5.4% YoY. However after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales decreased by 0.8% and were down 0.6% YoY.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: February 2023
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Declines for Seventh Straight Month
The latest manufacturing index came in at -23.2, up 1.1 from last month's -24.3, marking the index's seventh negative reading in a row.. The three-month moving average is now at -18.8, down from last month and the lowest since June 2020. The six-month outlook was down 9.7 points to -8.0. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.
Crisis Narrative Forcing Out All Others in Bank-Obsessed Markets
Is upheaval in the banking sector the prelude to a financial crisis, or just the biggest bump yet on the road to restoring order to the economy? Stock investors clinging to hopes this too shall pass are having their tolerance for pain severely tested.
Over Time, Markets have Proved Positive and Resilient
When markets react, consider a broader historical perspective before changing your financial course.
Building Permits Climb 13.8% in February
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.524M crushed the Investing.com forecast of 1.340M. Building permits climbed 13.82% from January's revised figure of 1.339M, the largest monthly gain since July 2020.
Housing Starts Jump 9.8% in February
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.450M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.310M and is a 9.8% increase from the previous month's revised figure of 1.321M. Housing starts are down 18.4% compared to this time last year.
Banks and the Butterfly Effect—the Global Ramifications
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
Bank Worries Strike Again
What our experts think about today's market action.
Credit Suisse’s Chickens Come Home to Roost
Credit Suisse’s problems revealed today stem from issues the company discussed last June in a profit warning.
The Aftershock That Will Follow Silicon Valley Bank
The banking earthquake is sending shockwaves through the financial markets. The financial and economic aftershocks, soon to follow, are underappreciated and will prove worse than the earthquake.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Confidence Edges Higher but Future Outlook Uncertain
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (40) at 44, up 2 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last six months.
Stocks Falling as European Banking Worries Flare Up
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
Retail Sales Dip 0.4% in February After Strong January
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February was released this morning. Headline sales came in slightly below forecast at -0.4% month-over-month. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -0.1% month-over-month, in line with the forecast.
Bank Failures and the Fed
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
Chinese Internet – the Boom and Bust Story
101 Lesson of Structural growth versus recovery growth investing.
Ray Dalio Warns SVB’s Collapse Shows Cracks Widening in Global Finance
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned Silicon Valley Bank’s failure shows cracks widening in global finance, joining other US billionaires raising the alarm on fallout from the lender’s collapse.
Producer Price Index: February Headline at 4.6%, Down from January
The morning's release of the February Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was at -0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from last month's 0.3% increase. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) was at 0.0% month-over-month, down from last month's 0.4% increase. Both headline and core PPI came in lower than their respective Investing.com forecasts, with headline expectations at 0.3% and core expectations at 0.4%.
February Inflation: The Components
We are currently seeing some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
U.S. Workforce: February 2023 Update
I've updated our monthly workforceanalysis to include the latest employment report for February. The unemployment rate increased to 3.6%, and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 311K.
Fidelity, Schroders Win Big on Treasuries Bets as Markets Swoon
Some of the world’s top money managers are sitting on a windfall after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank spurred the biggest rally in US Treasuries since the early 1980s.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Expectations for Better Business Conditions Remain Low
The headline number for February came in at 90.9, up 0.6 from the previous month, but still below the series average of 98.2. The index is at the 9th percentile in this series.
Making Sense of SVB, a Unique Bank with a Classic Problem
Why did Silicon Valley Bank fail?
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a close look at February's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Fed’s Battle Plan for Inflation Shredded by Financial Turmoil
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s strategy to speed up the central bank’s inflation-fighting efforts is unraveling in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.
Be the Superhero Your Clients Deserve
Your clients need a hero – one who can help them navigate the uncertain world and keep them on track to living their best lives no matter what circumstances they face. That hero should be their financial advisor.
Alts Investing is Mainstream: The Right Custodian Can Help
Let’s explore the barriers that have kept alts in an ivory tower, why they’re becoming mainstream, and how advisors and their clients can incorporate alts into their portfolios.
An Annuity Can Fund Looming College Tuition
Can we aggressively position assets today that have the potential for strong growth in the next 24 months when a tuition bill is due, without exposing those assets to market risk?
The Evidence Against Favoring Dividend-Paying Stocks
My research confirms what academic theory predicts: There has been no historical alpha among dividend-paying stocks, including those with a history of increasing dividends. Investors are better served by “tilting” allocations to factors that have historically outperformed (e.g., value).
Here’s How SVB’s Collapse Is Reverberating Around the World
Silicon Valley Bank became the biggest US lender to fail in more than a decade, creating fears of contagion in tech and finance sectors in the US and around the world.
Stocks Remain Under Pressure as Banking Worries Remain
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
Silicon Valley Bank Failure Ripples Through the Market
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
SVB’s 44-Hour Collapse Was Rooted in Treasury Bets During Pandemic
Greg Becker sat in a red armchair at an invite-only conference in Los Angeles last week, legs crossed, one hand cutting through air.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: February Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of non-farm employment. February saw a 311,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%. The Investing.com forecast was for 205,000 jobs gained.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Stocks Trying to Battle Back From a Two-Day Rout
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Add Emerging Market Strength in Global Weakness
Head of Portfolio Strategy David Dali explains why it’s an opportune time to add emerging-market exposure.
Municipal Bond Outlook 2023: Three Reasons for Optimism
We believe municipal bonds boast several key factors that position them as an attractive asset class in general, but especially so when markets are volatile.
Stocks Chipping Away at Weekly Losses
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
The Yield Curve Screams Recession
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed could hike rates more and more often.
Deepest Bond Yield Inversion Since Volcker Suggests Hard Landing
The bond market is doubling down on the prospect of a US recession after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of a return to bigger interest-rate hikes to cool inflation and the economy.
Is Now The Time To Buy Stocks?
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
Muni Bond Update: Credit Quality Still Looks Strong
While 2023 has started on shaky ground for the municipal bond market, there are reasons to be optimistic for more stability ahead, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bond Research. She explains why California’s issues don’t reflect all states, and offers reasons for optimism.
January Job Openings & Labor Turnover
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report, with data through January, is now available.
You Are Asking the Wrong Question About ChatGPT
The question you are asking about AI (“Will AI replace me?”) is wrong. The right one is this…
January Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2B
The U.S. international trade in goods and services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$68.2B was better than the -68.9B Investing.com forecast, however it is the largest gap we have seen in the last 3 months.
Don’t Speculate on Speculation
Read our latest insight to learn why we believe this year's market rally is just speculation and how we are positioning our portfolios for a change in leadership.
Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1 February 2023
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
Is Now The Time To Buy Stocks?
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
A Positive Outlook for Recruitment and M&A
The landscape for M&A and recruitment in the advisory profession will continue to be strong.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,687 for an annualized real return of 6.29%.
Investing for Your Long Term Goals
Recently, many market commentators have been preaching the message that fixed income investors should stick to a low duration strategy.
Four Key Questions to Ask Before Making a Hedge Fund Investment
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
The Promise of Machine Learning
Machine learning shows great promise for empirical asset pricing and has the potential to improve our understanding of expected asset returns.
A Comparison of Variable Spending Strategies
Any of the variable spending strategies I analyzed will reduce sequence risk in retirement and allow for greater initial spending rates, potentially greater average spending amounts, and a generally more efficient spenddown of assets than the baseline constant inflation-adjusted spending rule.
The Value of Women Across the Board
More women in senior roles will support the long-term success and sustainability of emerging markets.