Join the experts at Envestnet and VettaFi on April 18th for a discussion of how to make “the Intelligent Financial Life” a reality for your clients.
Advisors have always considered the discovery meeting unchallengeable. Why?
Realty Income, A.K.A. the Monthly Dividend Company, has rarely been attractively valued since the spring of 2010. However, rising interest rates have brought the price down to fair value.
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
Following recent efforts by central banks and regulators to alleviate the banking crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Lukasz Kalwak discuss their thoughts on the implications and outlook for the banking industries in the United States and Europe.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
Yesterday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to a 4.75%–5.0% range and signaled that one more hike is likely this cycle.
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for February is 4.8% while the prices-only measure is 3.9%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.0% and Core CPI is 5.5%.
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at 0, unchanged from last month's figure. The future outlook came in at 3, up 2 from last month.
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.19 in February, down from an unrevised +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, and three categories deteriorated from January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –0.13 in February from –0.27 in January.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 191K new claims, down 1K from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 197K.
Fulcrum Asset Management oversees $6.2 billion in assets. It is headquartered in London and has an office in New York. Like the other executives at Fulcrum Asset Management, Nabeel Abdoula is enthusiastic about the ability of macro fund strategies to deliver results for the clients of advisors during the tough times as well as better economic/market conditions.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled it’s not finished hiking, despite the risk of exacerbating a bank crisis that’s roiled global markets.
I’ll explore four tools and strategies you can leverage to improve how your site ranks in search engines to reach your clients and prospects more effectively.
Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
To shore up Silicon Valley Bank and the other failed banks, the Federal Reserve extended an open-ended line of credit via its Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and discount window borrowings.
I am drained having my colleagues and team members come to me with problems because of their frustration with my company.
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
All eyes in the financial and economic world will be laser-focused Wednesday on the Federal Reserve as Chair Jerome Powell tries to balance his fight against inflation against a sudden banking crisis.
Easing financial conditions globally have made Morgan Stanley “outright bullish” on growth stocks in Asia and emerging markets versus their value peers.
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
As of March 20, the price of regular and premium gas were down 3 cents and 4 cents from the previous week, respectively. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.81 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.89. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.82 and is down 9.3% from last week.
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
This morning's release of the February existing home sales showed that sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million units from the previous month's 4.00 million, ending the 12-month streak of monthly declines. The latest number represents a 14.5% month-over-month increase, its largest since July 2020 and well above the Investing.com forecast of 5%. With that being said, existing home sales are down 22.6% compared to one year ago.
The simplest thing that can be said about current financial market and banking conditions is this: the unwinding of this Fed-induced, yield-seeking speculative bubble is proceeding as one would expect, and it’s not over by a longshot.
Help end investors understand that bailing out of bonds could mean locking in losses and missing a potential recovery.
Five of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 20, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 8.33%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 6.94%, and China's Shanghai moved to third with a YTD gain of 4.71%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.28% YTD.
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.
Markets have been trading as if the end of the world is at hand – but what most participants see, behind the recent financial turmoil and contagion fears, is a still-strong US economy, the MLIV Pulse survey shows.
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets.
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
The strongest force standing in the way of nuclear energy is the antiquated, irrational fear of it.
New research confirms the valuable role that short sellers play in correcting the valuations of overpriced stocks.
With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks.
Could the consensus view of a “no recession” scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily.
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Fears of bank runs precipitating a broader financial crisis helped spark a surge in bullion buying this week.
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
GMO 7-year Asset Class Forecast: February 2023
I've updated this series to include the February release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $48,172, down 8.2% from 50 years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
The key to if — or when — the US economy falls into recession will depend on how the latest turmoil in the banking sector spills over to Main Street.
Jamie Dimon and Janet Yellen were on a call Tuesday, when she floated an idea: What if the nation’s largest lenders deposited billions of dollars into First Republic Bank, the latest firm getting nudged toward the brink by a depositor panic
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
Following this week’s banking crisis and the return of government bailouts, investors and traders alike are once again calling for a Fed pivot.
The market gyrations are not rooted in a banking crisis, but in financial cracks from rapid rate hikes.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February was down 0.3% to 110.0 from January's final figure of 110.3, marking the 11th consecutive MoM decline. Today's reading was consistent with the Investing.com forecast.
Merely advertising your presence in the marketplace is too vague and unspecific. It fails to project authority and generate trust.
The March preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 63.4, down 3.6 (-5.4%) from the February final. This morning's reading was the first monthly decline in the last four months and came in below the Investing.com forecast of 66.9. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 25.7% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 24.7% below its geometric mean.
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.4% and up 5.4% YoY. However after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales decreased by 0.8% and were down 0.6% YoY.
February's ZHVI came in at $327,514, practically unchanged from January and up 6.76% from February 2022. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.71% month-over-month and -1.16% year-over-year.
When markets react, consider a broader historical perspective before changing your financial course.
Although the dust has not yet settled, we think it’s a good time to pause and consider the implications of the recent Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.524M crushed the Investing.com forecast of 1.340M. Building permits climbed 13.82% from January's revised figure of 1.339M, the largest monthly gain since July 2020.
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
What our experts think about today's market action.
Credit Suisse’s problems revealed today stem from issues the company discussed last June in a profit warning.
Advisors are increasingly using annuities when they determine that it is in their clients’ best interests. They recognize that it is a client’s income – not their wealth – that matters in retirement, and annuities are the only way to provide a longevity-protected income solution. Rising inflation and uncertainty over high market valuations have made the need to secure lifetime income more acute, and rising interest rates have made annuities more affordable.
Here to discuss how to help clients and prospects determine if an annuity is a good fit for their financial needs are three members of the Protective Life team: Lori Marino, Tom Sullivan and Mark Berwanger.
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from the latest employment report for February. Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort and nearly one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
Quiet hiring. Quiet quitting. Quiet firing. It seems everyone’s allergic to confrontation in the labor market.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (40) at 44, up 2 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last six months.
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
101 Lesson of Structural growth versus recovery growth investing.
China can match the US in artificial intelligence thanks to the expertise of companies from Alibaba to Baidu, joining a global tech transformation that will dwarf the mobile revolution, according to industry pioneer Kai-Fu Lee.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned Silicon Valley Bank’s failure shows cracks widening in global finance, joining other US billionaires raising the alarm on fallout from the lender’s collapse.
Headline CPI came in today as expected at 0.4%, however core inflation (ex food and energy) came in slightly higher at 0.5% versus the estimated 0.4% increase.
The extreme “tail” risk ahead may be disorienting.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of February, the labor force participation rate is at 62.5%, up slightly from last month.
I've put together four steps for effectively reviewing and updating your digital listings to ensure they are accurate and up to date – this month.
Smart Beta
Tax Season Should Be About Opportunity, Not Anxiety
Join the experts at Envestnet and VettaFi on April 18th for a discussion of how to make “the Intelligent Financial Life” a reality for your clients.
The End of the Discovery Meeting
Advisors have always considered the discovery meeting unchallengeable. Why?
Rare Opportunity To Earn Monthly Dividend Income At A Reasonable Price
Realty Income, A.K.A. the Monthly Dividend Company, has rarely been attractively valued since the spring of 2010. However, rising interest rates have brought the price down to fair value.
Recession Odds Rising
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
How Is the SVB and Credit Suisse Crisis Affecting the US and European Banking Industry?
Following recent efforts by central banks and regulators to alleviate the banking crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Lukasz Kalwak discuss their thoughts on the implications and outlook for the banking industries in the United States and Europe.
Growth in Real Money Supply is What is Important for Taming Inflation, and for the Fed
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Echoes Of '08? Don't Bank On It
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
With Banks in Focus, the Fed Signals (Cautious) Optimism
Yesterday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to a 4.75%–5.0% range and signaled that one more hike is likely this cycle.
Underlying Inflation Gauge: February Update
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for February is 4.8% while the prices-only measure is 3.9%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.0% and Core CPI is 5.5%.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
The Crucial Questions
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Markets Again Under Pressure
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold Bulls Look to Push through $2,000
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Market Focus Moves from the Fed to Financial Crisis
Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Stayed Flat
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at 0, unchanged from last month's figure. The future outlook came in at 3, up 2 from last month.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
Don’t Bank On It
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
March Fed Rate Hike: Sometimes the Moments That Challenge Us the Most Define Us
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Declined in February
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.19 in February, down from an unrevised +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, and three categories deteriorated from January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –0.13 in February from –0.27 in January.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K, Lower Than Expected
This morning's seasonally adjusted 191K new claims, down 1K from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 197K.
The Macro Investing Outlook
Fulcrum Asset Management oversees $6.2 billion in assets. It is headquartered in London and has an office in New York. Like the other executives at Fulcrum Asset Management, Nabeel Abdoula is enthusiastic about the ability of macro fund strategies to deliver results for the clients of advisors during the tough times as well as better economic/market conditions.
Fed Hikes Quarter Point, Signals It Still Expects Higher Rates
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled it’s not finished hiking, despite the risk of exacerbating a bank crisis that’s roiled global markets.
Four Tools to Improve Your Site's Search Visibility
I’ll explore four tools and strategies you can leverage to improve how your site ranks in search engines to reach your clients and prospects more effectively.
Taming Biases in High-Dividend Equity Strategies
Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
Alternative Investments Outlook Post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Balloons
To shore up Silicon Valley Bank and the other failed banks, the Federal Reserve extended an open-ended line of credit via its Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and discount window borrowings.
Is My Company Really That Bad?
I am drained having my colleagues and team members come to me with problems because of their frustration with my company.
Stocks Climb Ahead of Fed Meeting
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
Fed Caught Between Inflation and Bank Crisis
All eyes in the financial and economic world will be laser-focused Wednesday on the Federal Reserve as Chair Jerome Powell tries to balance his fight against inflation against a sudden banking crisis.
Morgan Stanley Turns ‘Outright Bullish’ on Asian Growth Stocks
Easing financial conditions globally have made Morgan Stanley “outright bullish” on growth stocks in Asia and emerging markets versus their value peers.
GLP-Backed Fund to Raise $100 Million for Asian Fintech Deals
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
Stocks Are Shrugging Off Bank Woes With Help From Hedge Funds
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Down 9.3% from Last Week
As of March 20, the price of regular and premium gas were down 3 cents and 4 cents from the previous week, respectively. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.81 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.89. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.82 and is down 9.3% from last week.
Biggest Fear for Trillion-Dollar Funds Is Missing Next Rally
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
Banking, Inflation, and the Fed: Where Do We Go From Here?
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
US Studies Ways to Insure All Bank Deposits If Crisis Grows
US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.
Incremental Progress Emerging in the Banking Sector Fallout
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Existing-Home Sales Surge in February, Ending 12-Month Streak of Declines
This morning's release of the February existing home sales showed that sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million units from the previous month's 4.00 million, ending the 12-month streak of monthly declines. The latest number represents a 14.5% month-over-month increase, its largest since July 2020 and well above the Investing.com forecast of 5%. With that being said, existing home sales are down 22.6% compared to one year ago.
Edge of the Edge
The simplest thing that can be said about current financial market and banking conditions is this: the unwinding of this Fed-induced, yield-seeking speculative bubble is proceeding as one would expect, and it’s not over by a longshot.
Keeping Your Bond Perspective: Declines, Rallies and the Role of Bonds
Help end investors understand that bailing out of bonds could mean locking in losses and missing a potential recovery.
World Markets Update: March 20, 2023
Five of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 20, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 8.33%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 6.94%, and China's Shanghai moved to third with a YTD gain of 4.71%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.28% YTD.
A Difficult Job Becomes Even More Difficult
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Bank Crisis Survivors Remember How Fast the Dominoes Can Fall
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.
US Economy Has Investor Backing as Bank Risks Grow
Markets have been trading as if the end of the world is at hand – but what most participants see, behind the recent financial turmoil and contagion fears, is a still-strong US economy, the MLIV Pulse survey shows.
Two Sides of Healthcare, One Strong Investment Case
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
UBS to Buy Credit Suisse in $3.3 Billion Deal to End Crisis
UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets.
Sustainable Investing: Opportunistically Managing Risk
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
The Fed’s Got Inflation Backwards
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
A Multi-Asset Perspective on Recent Bank Turmoil: Don’t Lose Sight of the Macro Story
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
Lies, Damn Lies, and Visions of Nuclear Catastrophe
The strongest force standing in the way of nuclear energy is the antiquated, irrational fear of it.
New Evidence that Short Sellers Correct Overpriced Stocks
New research confirms the valuable role that short sellers play in correcting the valuations of overpriced stocks.
Bank Runs. The First Sign The Fed “Broke Something.”
With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks.
Consensus View Of “No Recession.” Could It Be Wrong?
Could the consensus view of a “no recession” scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily.
Another Unstable Finger
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Could Bank Runs Lead to a Run on Gold & Silver?
Fears of bank runs precipitating a broader financial crisis helped spark a surge in bullion buying this week.
The Professor's Portfolio
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
GMO 7-year Asset Class Forecast: February 2023
GMO 7-year Asset Class Forecast: February 2023
Middle-Class Hourly Wages as of February 2023
I've updated this series to include the February release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $48,172, down 8.2% from 50 years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
Where to Look for Signs Financial Turmoil Is Impacting the US Economy
The key to if — or when — the US economy falls into recession will depend on how the latest turmoil in the banking sector spills over to Main Street.
How First Republic Bank Received a $30 Billion Lifeline
Jamie Dimon and Janet Yellen were on a call Tuesday, when she floated an idea: What if the nation’s largest lenders deposited billions of dollars into First Republic Bank, the latest firm getting nudged toward the brink by a depositor panic
Banking Sector Uncertainty Keeps Pressure on Stocks
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
Don’t Expect a Fed Pivot Just Yet
Following this week’s banking crisis and the return of government bailouts, investors and traders alike are once again calling for a Fed pivot.
No 2008 Redux, But Recession Coming
The market gyrations are not rooted in a banking crisis, but in financial cracks from rapid rate hikes.
CB LEI: Down 0.3% in February, Still Pointing to Risk of Recession
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February was down 0.3% to 110.0 from January's final figure of 110.3, marking the 11th consecutive MoM decline. Today's reading was consistent with the Investing.com forecast.
Stop Wasting Your Money On "Presence" Marketing
Merely advertising your presence in the marketplace is too vague and unspecific. It fails to project authority and generate trust.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops for First Time in Four Months
The March preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 63.4, down 3.6 (-5.4%) from the February final. This morning's reading was the first monthly decline in the last four months and came in below the Investing.com forecast of 66.9. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 25.7% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 24.7% below its geometric mean.
European Banking Sector—Taking Stock After Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
The Big Four: February Real Retail Sales Down 0.8%
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.4% and up 5.4% YoY. However after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales decreased by 0.8% and were down 0.6% YoY.
Zillow Home Value Index: February Update
February's ZHVI came in at $327,514, practically unchanged from January and up 6.76% from February 2022. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.71% month-over-month and -1.16% year-over-year.
Over Time, Markets have Proved Positive and Resilient
When markets react, consider a broader historical perspective before changing your financial course.
SVB Failure: The Impact on Private Credit
Although the dust has not yet settled, we think it’s a good time to pause and consider the implications of the recent Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse.
Building Permits Climb 13.8% in February
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.524M crushed the Investing.com forecast of 1.340M. Building permits climbed 13.82% from January's revised figure of 1.339M, the largest monthly gain since July 2020.
Banks and the Butterfly Effect—the Global Ramifications
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
Bank Worries Strike Again
What our experts think about today's market action.
Credit Suisse’s Chickens Come Home to Roost
Credit Suisse’s problems revealed today stem from issues the company discussed last June in a profit warning.
How to Frame Client Discussions About Lifetime-Income Solutions
Advisors are increasingly using annuities when they determine that it is in their clients’ best interests. They recognize that it is a client’s income – not their wealth – that matters in retirement, and annuities are the only way to provide a longevity-protected income solution. Rising inflation and uncertainty over high market valuations have made the need to secure lifetime income more acute, and rising interest rates have made annuities more affordable.
Here to discuss how to help clients and prospects determine if an annuity is a good fit for their financial needs are three members of the Protective Life team: Lori Marino, Tom Sullivan and Mark Berwanger.
Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from the latest employment report for February. Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort and nearly one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
Is Quiet Hiring the Answer to the Great Resignation?
Quiet hiring. Quiet quitting. Quiet firing. It seems everyone’s allergic to confrontation in the labor market.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Confidence Edges Higher but Future Outlook Uncertain
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (40) at 44, up 2 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last six months.
Stocks Falling as European Banking Worries Flare Up
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
Chinese Internet – the Boom and Bust Story
101 Lesson of Structural growth versus recovery growth investing.
China Can Quickly Catch Up to US AI, Says Venture Veteran
China can match the US in artificial intelligence thanks to the expertise of companies from Alibaba to Baidu, joining a global tech transformation that will dwarf the mobile revolution, according to industry pioneer Kai-Fu Lee.
Ray Dalio Warns SVB’s Collapse Shows Cracks Widening in Global Finance
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned Silicon Valley Bank’s failure shows cracks widening in global finance, joining other US billionaires raising the alarm on fallout from the lender’s collapse.
CPI Confirms Fed is Close to Stopping
Headline CPI came in today as expected at 0.4%, however core inflation (ex food and energy) came in slightly higher at 0.5% versus the estimated 0.4% increase.
Headed For The Tail
The extreme “tail” risk ahead may be disorienting.
Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of February, the labor force participation rate is at 62.5%, up slightly from last month.
How to Manage Your Digital Listings
I've put together four steps for effectively reviewing and updating your digital listings to ensure they are accurate and up to date – this month.