Moving Averages: S&P Down 9.3% in September
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed September with a monthly loss of 9.34% after a loss of 4.24% in August. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, all five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — up from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Now Comes the Hard Part
Surveying the current condition of the financial markets, we presently observe a combination of still historically-extreme valuations, rising yet still only normalizing interest rates, measurably inadequate risk-premiums in both equities and bonds, and ragged, unfavorable market internals, suggesting continued risk-aversion among investors.
Buffett Indicator Says Markets Are Going To Crash?
Stocks are far from cheap. Based on Buffett’s preferred valuation model and historical data, return expectations for the next ten years are as likely to be negative as they were for the ten years following the late ’90s.
Why Investors Are Facing Even More Market Instability
Frequent flyers are accustomed to turbulence on some flights. Indeed, many expect it. Despite such anticipation, however, the turbulence can once in a while create significant anxiety among even the most seasoned travelers.