Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
While the economy faces risks of a slowdown, a strong labor market has supported consumer spending. Our presenters will evaluate risks to the economic expansion and impact of uncertain monetary policy.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
This morning's release of the February new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 640K, up 1.1% month-over-month from a revised 633K in January. This is below the Investing.com forecast of 650K however it is the highest amount of monthly sales in the last 6 months. and above the Investing.com forecast of 620K. The median home price is now at $438,200, up $11.7K from January on a nominal basis.
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
This morning's release of the February existing home sales showed that sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million units from the previous month's 4.00 million, ending the 12-month streak of monthly declines. The latest number represents a 14.5% month-over-month increase, its largest since July 2020 and well above the Investing.com forecast of 5%. With that being said, existing home sales are down 22.6% compared to one year ago.
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their February findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and oermits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.
The key to if — or when — the US economy falls into recession will depend on how the latest turmoil in the banking sector spills over to Main Street.
In a dovish move, the central bank raises rates by half a point.
February's ZHVI came in at $327,514, practically unchanged from January and up 6.76% from February 2022. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.71% month-over-month and -1.16% year-over-year.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.524M crushed the Investing.com forecast of 1.340M. Building permits climbed 13.82% from January's revised figure of 1.339M, the largest monthly gain since July 2020.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.450M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.310M and is a 9.8% increase from the previous month's revised figure of 1.321M. Housing starts are down 18.4% compared to this time last year.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (40) at 44, up 2 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last six months.
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
Why don’t sellers of services transparently list one price that includes all fees?
The high-profile collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week is a story about bad debt, just not in the way most people think.
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.
Gen Zers, according to a recent Magnify Money survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy.
This is a couple months past its release, but the latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth for households and nonprofit organizations that is 149% above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q4 2022 net worth is down up 2.0% from the previous quarter and down 2.7% year-over-year.
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
Given the topsy-turvy nature of the market thus far in 2023, it remains crucial for investors to know what they are buying—especially as it relates to growth, value, and quality.
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
You know you have a non-ideal client when…
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
The Federal Reserve said that further interest-rate hikes would be required to restore price stability.
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
Medical Properties Trust’s dividend at the 2022 rate of $1.16 is safe even if Prospect, its third-largest operator, does not pay a single cent in 2023.
Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons.
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
Scores of counties offer a free monitoring service to taxpayers if a new need is filed for a property.
US homebuyers are increasingly paying in cash. The share of all-cash deals rose to the highest since 2013 last year, while institutional investors, who usually account for many cash sales, retreated, according to data from real estate data analytics firm Attom. That suggests more regular buyers turned to self funding to dodge punishing mortgage rates.
This commentary reflects on the silver linings of the higher interest rate environment as well as explores the possible winners and losers under this new regime.
With this morning's release of the December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.51% decrease month-over-month (MoM), matching the Investing.com forecast, and a 4.67% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.3% and the YoY was reduced to -2.7%.
Gold bugs started 2023 with high hopes after the precious metals sector showed impressive relative strength versus paper assets in 2022.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for December. U.S. house prices decreased by 0.1% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 6.6% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.1% in December and up 0.6% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
Low-volatility strategies are often cited as an anomaly offering higher returns without a corresponding increase in risk. But the so-called low-volatility factor is well explained by other factors, and new research shows it does not reduce exposure to “systemic,” broad-economic risks.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the January data for its pending home sales index. According to the NAR, "Pending home sales improved in January for the second consecutive month."
Close to 90% of the world’s central banks are at some point in the process of creating their own digital currency. Are you ready?
Many investors believe that gold is a safe long-term investment that can be used to hedge against risk. But should you include this precious metal in your retirement portfolio?
With the release of this morning's report on January's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 1.98% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 1.35% when we adjust for inflation. This is a steep increase from last month's .37% nominal and 0.17% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 1.98% nominal and 2.34% real.
MPW’s dividend is safe.
With the consumer price index increasing during the last few years at a rate not seen for nearly 40 years, the investing challenge for the coming year is finding ways to generate real returns during exceptionally high inflation.
A malinvestment bubble has persisted for years, sucking in a considerable amount of capital from many sources.
US homes in areas prone to floods may be currently overvalued in the range of $121 billion to $237 billion, according to a report published Thursday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Investors continue to seek signs of a change in season—and clues about how the Federal Reserve might react to it.
Here are some places where the genuinely rich keep their money.
There are several ways to include philanthropic giving in your estate plan. Here are five common options.
Crypto platforms could soon face a new set of hurdles to hold digital assets owned by clients of hedge funds and private equity firms in the US.
Most think so.
Like all trusts, a charitable trust is a legal entity that you create for the purpose of holding and managing assets. The trust is wholly separate from you. It owns any assets it holds, pays taxes and requires management just like any other legally recognized entity.
National rent controls are much more a political “feel good” measure than they are a reasonable economic strategy. President Biden wants to make things worse.
This Super Bowl will also be remembered, I believe, as a major turning point in sports betting in the U.S. More than 50 million American adults are expected to bet on the game, the most ever and a remarkable 61% increase from last year.
The Loomis Sayles Mortgage & Structured Finance Sector Team shares insights on consumers, real estate markets and more.
One of many things to break in last year’s market rout was a decade-long stretch in which gains in stocks overwhelmed gains in wages.
Markets are no longer shocked by central bank tightening.
The recent embrace of so-called liquid alternatives by ordinary Americans seeking to fund their retirement is deeply troubling.
The greatest anomaly is that despite decades of poor performance and the failure to effectively hedge exposure to conventional security classes, assets under management among hedge funds have grown from about $300 billion 25 years ago to about $5 trillion today.
These weekly letters, of which I’ve now written well over 1,000 (plus 7 books and multiple papers and articles), are generally about two broad topics: the economy and the financial markets. While related, these aren’t the same. Good news for one can be (and often is) bad news for the other.
Blackstone Inc.’s $69 billion real estate trust hit a monthly redemption limit in January, as the firm’s crown jewel continues to wrestle with a line of investors seeking to get money out.
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.
Shaky property markets across much of the world pose another risk to the global economy as higher interest rates erode household finances and threaten to exacerbate falling prices.
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q4 2022.
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
US dollar cycles are long.
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
If you believe in the Milton Friedman adage that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, then you should also believe that the Federal Reserve can stop increasing interest rates. Now.
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Do you fear looking back at your career one day and asking yourself “what if” you had made a move to independence?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Real Estate
Recession Odds Rising
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
The 2023 Real Estate Market Outlook
While the economy faces risks of a slowdown, a strong labor market has supported consumer spending. Our presenters will evaluate risks to the economic expansion and impact of uncertain monetary policy.
Growth in Real Money Supply is What is Important for Taming Inflation, and for the Fed
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The Crucial Questions
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
New Home Sales Up for Third Straight Month
This morning's release of the February new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 640K, up 1.1% month-over-month from a revised 633K in January. This is below the Investing.com forecast of 650K however it is the highest amount of monthly sales in the last 6 months. and above the Investing.com forecast of 620K. The median home price is now at $438,200, up $11.7K from January on a nominal basis.
Alternative Investments Outlook Post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Stocks Climb Ahead of Fed Meeting
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
GLP-Backed Fund to Raise $100 Million for Asian Fintech Deals
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
Banking, Inflation, and the Fed: Where Do We Go From Here?
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
Existing-Home Sales Surge in February, Ending 12-Month Streak of Declines
This morning's release of the February existing home sales showed that sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million units from the previous month's 4.00 million, ending the 12-month streak of monthly declines. The latest number represents a 14.5% month-over-month increase, its largest since July 2020 and well above the Investing.com forecast of 5%. With that being said, existing home sales are down 22.6% compared to one year ago.
A Difficult Job Becomes Even More Difficult
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The Fed’s Got Inflation Backwards
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
Another Unstable Finger
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
The Professor's Portfolio
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
A Long-Term Look: Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts
Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their February findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and oermits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.
Where to Look for Signs Financial Turmoil Is Impacting the US Economy
The key to if — or when — the US economy falls into recession will depend on how the latest turmoil in the banking sector spills over to Main Street.
The ECB Hikes Rates Amid Financial Market Volatility
In a dovish move, the central bank raises rates by half a point.
Zillow Home Value Index: February Update
February's ZHVI came in at $327,514, practically unchanged from January and up 6.76% from February 2022. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.71% month-over-month and -1.16% year-over-year.
Building Permits Climb 13.8% in February
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.524M crushed the Investing.com forecast of 1.340M. Building permits climbed 13.82% from January's revised figure of 1.339M, the largest monthly gain since July 2020.
Housing Starts Jump 9.8% in February
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.450M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.310M and is a 9.8% increase from the previous month's revised figure of 1.321M. Housing starts are down 18.4% compared to this time last year.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Confidence Edges Higher but Future Outlook Uncertain
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (40) at 44, up 2 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last six months.
Bank Failures and the Fed
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
How Clients Can Guard Against Junk Fees
Why don’t sellers of services transparently list one price that includes all fees?
Treasuries: "Risk Free" or "Risk Unlimited"?
The high-profile collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week is a story about bad debt, just not in the way most people think.
Silicon Valley Bank Failure Ripples Through the Market
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Monetary Cycle Versus Fiscal Cycle: What is the Difference?
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Thousand-Word Equivalents
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.
Gen Zers Are Overly Optimistic About Being Wealthy
Gen Zers, according to a recent Magnify Money survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy.
Q4 2022 Household Net Worth: The "Real" Story
This is a couple months past its release, but the latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth for households and nonprofit organizations that is 149% above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q4 2022 net worth is down up 2.0% from the previous quarter and down 2.7% year-over-year.
Biden to Urge 25% Billionaire Tax, Levies on Rich Investors
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
Caveat Emptor: Important Market Shifts Underway
Given the topsy-turvy nature of the market thus far in 2023, it remains crucial for investors to know what they are buying—especially as it relates to growth, value, and quality.
Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1 February 2023
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
Four Signs You’re Talking to the Wrong Prospects
You know you have a non-ideal client when…
Airline Stocks Are Soaring Over The Negative Headlines, Lifted By Positive Earnings
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
Fed Says More Rate Hikes Are Needed to Curb Inflation
The Federal Reserve said that further interest-rate hikes would be required to restore price stability.
Navigating A Turbulent Environment: EM IG To The Rescue
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
Medical Properties Trust: 11.26% Yield – The Risk is Priced In
Medical Properties Trust’s dividend at the 2022 rate of $1.16 is safe even if Prospect, its third-largest operator, does not pay a single cent in 2023.
International Equities: Poised for Recovery
Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes a Volatile February Down 2.61%
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
Your Clients May Get Free Real Estate Title Monitoring
Scores of counties offer a free monitoring service to taxpayers if a new need is filed for a property.
More US Homebuyers Are Paying in Cash, Sweeping a Majority of Sales in Some Markets
US homebuyers are increasingly paying in cash. The share of all-cash deals rose to the highest since 2013 last year, while institutional investors, who usually account for many cash sales, retreated, according to data from real estate data analytics firm Attom. That suggests more regular buyers turned to self funding to dodge punishing mortgage rates.
Silver Linings - Our February 2023 market Commentary
This commentary reflects on the silver linings of the higher interest rate environment as well as explores the possible winners and losers under this new regime.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continued to Decline in December
With this morning's release of the December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.51% decrease month-over-month (MoM), matching the Investing.com forecast, and a 4.67% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.3% and the YoY was reduced to -2.7%.
Better Early Than Late
Gold bugs started 2023 with high hopes after the precious metals sector showed impressive relative strength versus paper assets in 2022.
FHFA House Price Index Down 0.1% in December, Beats Forecast
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for December. U.S. house prices decreased by 0.1% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 6.6% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.1% in December and up 0.6% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Moving Averages Month-End Preview
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
Income and Expenditures in January 2023
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Beware of Low-Volatility Portfolios
Low-volatility strategies are often cited as an anomaly offering higher returns without a corresponding increase in risk. But the so-called low-volatility factor is well explained by other factors, and new research shows it does not reduce exposure to “systemic,” broad-economic risks.
Pending Home Sales Improved for Second Straight Month, Up 8.1% in January
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the January data for its pending home sales index. According to the NAR, "Pending home sales improved in January for the second consecutive month."
Your CBDC Survival Guide
Close to 90% of the world’s central banks are at some point in the process of creating their own digital currency. Are you ready?
Should You Invest in Gold for Retirement?
Many investors believe that gold is a safe long-term investment that can be used to hedge against risk. But should you include this precious metal in your retirement portfolio?
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Jumps 1.35% in January
With the release of this morning's report on January's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 1.98% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 1.35% when we adjust for inflation. This is a steep increase from last month's .37% nominal and 0.17% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 1.98% nominal and 2.34% real.
Medical Properties Trust: 9% Current And Growing Dividend Yield
MPW’s dividend is safe.
The Top Six Investments for Inflation in 2023
With the consumer price index increasing during the last few years at a rate not seen for nearly 40 years, the investing challenge for the coming year is finding ways to generate real returns during exceptionally high inflation.
A Sustained Reopening: 1Q 2022 Outlook
A malinvestment bubble has persisted for years, sucking in a considerable amount of capital from many sources.
US Housing Market Is Overvalued by Billions Due to Ignored Flood Risk
US homes in areas prone to floods may be currently overvalued in the range of $121 billion to $237 billion, according to a report published Thursday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Market Perspective: Searching for Spring
Investors continue to seek signs of a change in season—and clues about how the Federal Reserve might react to it.
Where Do Millionaires Keep Their Money?
Here are some places where the genuinely rich keep their money.
Using Philanthropic Giving in Your Estate Plan
There are several ways to include philanthropic giving in your estate plan. Here are five common options.
Crypto Platforms' Ties to Hedge Funds Under Fire in SEC Rule
Crypto platforms could soon face a new set of hurdles to hold digital assets owned by clients of hedge funds and private equity firms in the US.
Are We Having a Recession or Not?
Most think so.
How a Charitable Trust Works
Like all trusts, a charitable trust is a legal entity that you create for the purpose of holding and managing assets. The trust is wholly separate from you. It owns any assets it holds, pays taxes and requires management just like any other legally recognized entity.
Rent Controls Harm Tenants
National rent controls are much more a political “feel good” measure than they are a reasonable economic strategy. President Biden wants to make things worse.
Is a Recession This Year Unavoidable?
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The Real Reason Why 50 Million Americans Will Be Betting On The Super Bowl
This Super Bowl will also be remembered, I believe, as a major turning point in sports betting in the U.S. More than 50 million American adults are expected to bet on the game, the most ever and a remarkable 61% increase from last year.
Mortgage & Structured Finance Outlook: Where We See the Value
The Loomis Sayles Mortgage & Structured Finance Sector Team shares insights on consumers, real estate markets and more.
Bull Case on a Stock Crash Sees End of Fed Gifts to One Percent
One of many things to break in last year’s market rout was a decade-long stretch in which gains in stocks overwhelmed gains in wages.
Central Banks vs. Financial Conditions
Markets are no longer shocked by central bank tightening.
Alternatives for the Masses?
The recent embrace of so-called liquid alternatives by ordinary Americans seeking to fund their retirement is deeply troubling.
The Nonsensical Growth of Hedge Funds
The greatest anomaly is that despite decades of poor performance and the failure to effectively hedge exposure to conventional security classes, assets under management among hedge funds have grown from about $300 billion 25 years ago to about $5 trillion today.
A Muddle-Through Market, for Now
These weekly letters, of which I’ve now written well over 1,000 (plus 7 books and multiple papers and articles), are generally about two broad topics: the economy and the financial markets. While related, these aren’t the same. Good news for one can be (and often is) bad news for the other.
Back to the Drawing Board
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Blackstone's $69 Billion Real Estate Fund Hit Monthly Redemption Limit in January
Blackstone Inc.’s $69 billion real estate trust hit a monthly redemption limit in January, as the firm’s crown jewel continues to wrestle with a line of investors seeking to get money out.
Where is the Recession?
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.
Housing Slump From US to China Adds Risks to Global Economy
Shaky property markets across much of the world pose another risk to the global economy as higher interest rates erode household finances and threaten to exacerbate falling prices.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.9% in Q4 2022
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q4 2022.
4Q 2022 GMO Quarterly Letter
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
Charitable Giving, Looking Back and Forward
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
Crypto Is Worth Fixing. Regulators Should Get Moving
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
The Case for the Federal Reserve to Pause Right Now
If you believe in the Milton Friedman adage that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, then you should also believe that the Federal Reserve can stop increasing interest rates. Now.
The Outlook for Income: Balancing Rates and Credit in 2023
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
1099 Season – An Opportunity for Tax-Aware Advisors
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Ask Brad: Do You Rent or Own Your Advisory Practice?
Do you fear looking back at your career one day and asking yourself “what if” you had made a move to independence?
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Global Bond Sales Off to Record Start of Nearly $600 Billion
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.