Join Delaware Funds by Macquarie’s Co-Head of US Multisector Fixed Income, Daniela Mardarovici, for an interactive discussion that will help answer some of the biggest questions on investors’ minds.
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
Following recent efforts by central banks and regulators to alleviate the banking crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Lukasz Kalwak discuss their thoughts on the implications and outlook for the banking industries in the United States and Europe.
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
Read our latest insight where Dan Suzuki explains what investors need to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
The simplest thing that can be said about current financial market and banking conditions is this: the unwinding of this Fed-induced, yield-seeking speculative bubble is proceeding as one would expect, and it’s not over by a longshot.
Help end investors understand that bailing out of bonds could mean locking in losses and missing a potential recovery.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Markets have been trading as if the end of the world is at hand – but what most participants see, behind the recent financial turmoil and contagion fears, is a still-strong US economy, the MLIV Pulse survey shows.
UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets.
The late great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was often in dissent in key legal cases during his long career.
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks.
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 17, 2023 at 3.39%, the two-year note ended at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 3.60%.
Just over a year before Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse threatened a generation of technology startups and their backers, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco appointed a more senior team of examiners to assess the firm. They started calling out problem after problem.
The market gyrations are not rooted in a banking crisis, but in financial cracks from rapid rate hikes.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February was down 0.3% to 110.0 from January's final figure of 110.3, marking the 11th consecutive MoM decline. Today's reading was consistent with the Investing.com forecast.
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
Is upheaval in the banking sector the prelude to a financial crisis, or just the biggest bump yet on the road to restoring order to the economy? Stock investors clinging to hopes this too shall pass are having their tolerance for pain severely tested.
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
The extreme “tail” risk ahead may be disorienting.
The events that began with Thursday’s tumult in financial stocks and precipitated the FDIC takeover of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were swift.
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Why did Silicon Valley Bank fail?
The high-profile collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week is a story about bad debt, just not in the way most people think.
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy shares his analysis of the European Central Bank’s plans to unwind its largest quantitative policy measure, how it could affect markets and how it compares to previous policy changes.
US authorities took extraordinary measures to shore up confidence in the financial system after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, introducing a new backstop for banks that Federal Reserve officials said was big enough to protect the entire nation’s deposits.
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
President Biden has proposed a $6.9 trillion budget that calls for reducing deficits and raising taxes on wealthy people and large corporations. There is a lot of spending in this budget that fuels inflation.
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Warren Buffett defended stock buybacks in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter, pushing back on those railing against the practice he believes benefits all shareholders.
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
Greg Becker sat in a red armchair at an invite-only conference in Los Angeles last week, legs crossed, one hand cutting through air.
Investors sought the safety of bonds for a second day as jitters over a rout in bank stocks hit risk sentiment and traders speculated that rate-hike bets had gone too far too fast.
Vanguard Group Inc.’s first new exchange-traded fund in two years is setting sail at a turbulent time for municipal debt.
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
We believe municipal bonds boast several key factors that position them as an attractive asset class in general, but especially so when markets are volatile.
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
The bond market is doubling down on the prospect of a US recession after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of a return to bigger interest-rate hikes to cool inflation and the economy.
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
While 2023 has started on shaky ground for the municipal bond market, there are reasons to be optimistic for more stability ahead, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bond Research. She explains why California’s issues don’t reflect all states, and offers reasons for optimism.
Soft landing or hard landing? Recession or no recession? In my mind, there is no question more important.
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
Junior debt issued by banks is normally one of the riskiest types of fixed-income in the US and Europe. It’s typically not backed by collateral and in the event of a crisis it only gets paid back after other bonds.
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
Alessio de Longis spent the last three months loading up on risk in his $1.1 billion Invesco Global Allocation Fund. Now, he’s winding down those positions and reversing course back to safety.
Yep, you read that right. I’m about to teach you how to get new clients for less than $10 a month.
European stocks have outperformed this year as China’s economy restarts and the energy shock proved less severe than expected.
The landscape for M&A and recruitment in the advisory profession will continue to be strong.
Recently, many market commentators have been preaching the message that fixed income investors should stick to a low duration strategy.
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
With bonds and stocks once again falling in unison, cash is the ultimate refuge.
The fixed-income market’s unblemished record of striking fear into the hearts of equity traders is in danger.
If you read and pay attention to the world, you probably know the recent past pretty well. And if you’re a history buff like me, you also know something about the more distant past.
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
Today’s inflationary market landscape is fraught with risks for investors. Despite these circumstances, Scott Welch and Kevin Flanagan outline how bond investors can generate yield.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
Global Investment Strategist Rob Almeida explores how inflation may impact earnings and his outlook for stocks and bonds this year.
A recent Wall Street Journal article discussed how retail traders that made millions during the pandemic trading the market are now mostly wiped out.
January’s optimism about the bond market seems like a long time ago.
In recent years we have witnessed a surge in sovereign bond defaults in emerging markets.
Strength in employment and inflation has caused markets to raise the implied terminal rate while still expecting the Fed to normalize policy – which is different from easing – in 2024.
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
In just one month, emerging Asian assets have gone from a buy to sell. And all signs point to continued caution as March draws near.
This commentary reflects on the silver linings of the higher interest rate environment as well as explores the possible winners and losers under this new regime.
Turbulent equity markets and lofty bond yields has cash back in high demand.
For the first time in decades, Wall Street strategists are collectively pessimistic about the stock market over the coming year.
Gold bugs started 2023 with high hopes after the precious metals sector showed impressive relative strength versus paper assets in 2022.
Municipal Bonds
Bonds are bonds again: Will it last?
Join Delaware Funds by Macquarie’s Co-Head of US Multisector Fixed Income, Daniela Mardarovici, for an interactive discussion that will help answer some of the biggest questions on investors’ minds.
Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
How Is the SVB and Credit Suisse Crisis Affecting the US and European Banking Industry?
Following recent efforts by central banks and regulators to alleviate the banking crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Lukasz Kalwak discuss their thoughts on the implications and outlook for the banking industries in the United States and Europe.
Echoes Of '08? Don't Bank On It
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
The Crucial Questions
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Markets Again Under Pressure
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
Don’t Bank On It
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
Some Thoughts on Banks
Read our latest insight where Dan Suzuki explains what investors need to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
Alternative Investments Outlook Post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Stocks Are Shrugging Off Bank Woes With Help From Hedge Funds
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Biggest Fear for Trillion-Dollar Funds Is Missing Next Rally
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
Banking, Inflation, and the Fed: Where Do We Go From Here?
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
Incremental Progress Emerging in the Banking Sector Fallout
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Edge of the Edge
The simplest thing that can be said about current financial market and banking conditions is this: the unwinding of this Fed-induced, yield-seeking speculative bubble is proceeding as one would expect, and it’s not over by a longshot.
Keeping Your Bond Perspective: Declines, Rallies and the Role of Bonds
Help end investors understand that bailing out of bonds could mean locking in losses and missing a potential recovery.
A Difficult Job Becomes Even More Difficult
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
US Economy Has Investor Backing as Bank Risks Grow
Markets have been trading as if the end of the world is at hand – but what most participants see, behind the recent financial turmoil and contagion fears, is a still-strong US economy, the MLIV Pulse survey shows.
UBS to Buy Credit Suisse in $3.3 Billion Deal to End Crisis
UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets.
Heading Toward a National Bank?
The late great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was often in dissent in key legal cases during his long career.
A Multi-Asset Perspective on Recent Bank Turmoil: Don’t Lose Sight of the Macro Story
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
Bank Runs. The First Sign The Fed “Broke Something.”
With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks.
Another Unstable Finger
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
The Professor's Portfolio
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 17, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 17, 2023 at 3.39%, the two-year note ended at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 3.60%.
The Fed Was Too Late on SVB Even Though It Saw Problem After Problem
Just over a year before Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse threatened a generation of technology startups and their backers, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco appointed a more senior team of examiners to assess the firm. They started calling out problem after problem.
No 2008 Redux, But Recession Coming
The market gyrations are not rooted in a banking crisis, but in financial cracks from rapid rate hikes.
CB LEI: Down 0.3% in February, Still Pointing to Risk of Recession
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February was down 0.3% to 110.0 from January's final figure of 110.3, marking the 11th consecutive MoM decline. Today's reading was consistent with the Investing.com forecast.
European Banking Sector—Taking Stock After Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
Crisis Narrative Forcing Out All Others in Bank-Obsessed Markets
Is upheaval in the banking sector the prelude to a financial crisis, or just the biggest bump yet on the road to restoring order to the economy? Stock investors clinging to hopes this too shall pass are having their tolerance for pain severely tested.
Banks and the Butterfly Effect—the Global Ramifications
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
Central Bank Portfolios Are Underwater
If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.
Bank Failures and the Fed
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
Headed For The Tail
The extreme “tail” risk ahead may be disorienting.
The 2022-2023 Regime Change
The events that began with Thursday’s tumult in financial stocks and precipitated the FDIC takeover of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were swift.
Recent Bank Failures a Potential Game-Changer for The Fed
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Making Sense of SVB, a Unique Bank with a Classic Problem
Why did Silicon Valley Bank fail?
Treasuries: "Risk Free" or "Risk Unlimited"?
The high-profile collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week is a story about bad debt, just not in the way most people think.
Can the ECB Teach an Old Dog New Tricks?
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy shares his analysis of the European Central Bank’s plans to unwind its largest quantitative policy measure, how it could affect markets and how it compares to previous policy changes.
Fed’s New Backstop Shields Banks From $300 Billion of Losses
US authorities took extraordinary measures to shore up confidence in the financial system after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, introducing a new backstop for banks that Federal Reserve officials said was big enough to protect the entire nation’s deposits.
Stocks Remain Under Pressure as Banking Worries Remain
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
Biden’s $6.9 Trillion Deficit Gamble
President Biden has proposed a $6.9 trillion budget that calls for reducing deficits and raising taxes on wealthy people and large corporations. There is a lot of spending in this budget that fuels inflation.
Silicon Valley Bank Failure Ripples Through the Market
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Buffett On Buybacks
Warren Buffett defended stock buybacks in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter, pushing back on those railing against the practice he believes benefits all shareholders.
Bitcoin Is A Key Component Of The Great Digital Transformation
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
SVB’s 44-Hour Collapse Was Rooted in Treasury Bets During Pandemic
Greg Becker sat in a red armchair at an invite-only conference in Los Angeles last week, legs crossed, one hand cutting through air.
Treasuries Surge as Bond Bulls Seize on Bank Fears, Jobless Data
Investors sought the safety of bonds for a second day as jitters over a rout in bank stocks hit risk sentiment and traders speculated that rate-hike bets had gone too far too fast.
Vanguard’s First New ETF in Two Years Targets Short-Term Munis
Vanguard Group Inc.’s first new exchange-traded fund in two years is setting sail at a turbulent time for municipal debt.
Stocks Trying to Battle Back From a Two-Day Rout
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Municipal Bond Outlook 2023: Three Reasons for Optimism
We believe municipal bonds boast several key factors that position them as an attractive asset class in general, but especially so when markets are volatile.
Stocks Chipping Away at Weekly Losses
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
Deepest Bond Yield Inversion Since Volcker Suggests Hard Landing
The bond market is doubling down on the prospect of a US recession after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of a return to bigger interest-rate hikes to cool inflation and the economy.
Is Now The Time To Buy Stocks?
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
Are Cheap Burgers in Emerging Markets a Good Sign for Investors?
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
Muni Bond Update: Credit Quality Still Looks Strong
While 2023 has started on shaky ground for the municipal bond market, there are reasons to be optimistic for more stability ahead, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bond Research. She explains why California’s issues don’t reflect all states, and offers reasons for optimism.
Getting Ahead of Ourselves
Soft landing or hard landing? Recession or no recession? In my mind, there is no question more important.
Gundlach: We Could Have the Worst Default Cycle Ever
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
Risky Is Now Safe in Bond Market Upset by Soaring Inflation
Junior debt issued by banks is normally one of the riskiest types of fixed-income in the US and Europe. It’s typically not backed by collateral and in the event of a crisis it only gets paid back after other bonds.
Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1 February 2023
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
How a Billion-Dollar Invesco Fund Did a U-Turn After Hot Inflation Data
Alessio de Longis spent the last three months loading up on risk in his $1.1 billion Invesco Global Allocation Fund. Now, he’s winding down those positions and reversing course back to safety.
Is Now The Time To Buy Stocks?
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
How to Get Clients for Less Than $10 a Month
Yep, you read that right. I’m about to teach you how to get new clients for less than $10 a month.
Europe: Sticky Inflation Favors Income
European stocks have outperformed this year as China’s economy restarts and the energy shock proved less severe than expected.
A Positive Outlook for Recruitment and M&A
The landscape for M&A and recruitment in the advisory profession will continue to be strong.
Investing for Your Long Term Goals
Recently, many market commentators have been preaching the message that fixed income investors should stick to a low duration strategy.
Four Key Questions to Ask Before Making a Hedge Fund Investment
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
BofA Strategists See Cash Back in Vogue With Markets on Edge
With bonds and stocks once again falling in unison, cash is the ultimate refuge.
Stock Traders Are Ignoring Blaring Bond Alarms
The fixed-income market’s unblemished record of striking fear into the hearts of equity traders is in danger.
How It Started/How It's Going
If you read and pay attention to the world, you probably know the recent past pretty well. And if you’re a history buff like me, you also know something about the more distant past.
Airline Stocks Are Soaring Over The Negative Headlines, Lifted By Positive Earnings
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
What’s Yield Got to Do, Got to Do with It?
Today’s inflationary market landscape is fraught with risks for investors. Despite these circumstances, Scott Welch and Kevin Flanagan outline how bond investors can generate yield.
Bonds Haven’t Been This Attractive Since 2008
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Navigating A Turbulent Environment: EM IG To The Rescue
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
What's Ahead in 2023?
Global Investment Strategist Rob Almeida explores how inflation may impact earnings and his outlook for stocks and bonds this year.
Retail Traders Go Bust As Speculation Inevitably Goes Wrong
A recent Wall Street Journal article discussed how retail traders that made millions during the pandemic trading the market are now mostly wiped out.
Central Bank Portfolios Are Underwater
If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.
Fading Hopes of a Fed Cut Wipes Record $327 Billion From Bonds
January’s optimism about the bond market seems like a long time ago.
The Many Faces of Sovereign Default
In recent years we have witnessed a surge in sovereign bond defaults in emerging markets.
Data Alters Market's Expectations for Peak Policy Rate But Not Outlook for Fed Cuts
Strength in employment and inflation has caused markets to raise the implied terminal rate while still expecting the Fed to normalize policy – which is different from easing – in 2024.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes a Volatile February Down 2.61%
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
Stocks Muted as Choppiness Remains
U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
Frightful February Ends Call to Buy Everything in Emerging Asia
In just one month, emerging Asian assets have gone from a buy to sell. And all signs point to continued caution as March draws near.
Silver Linings - Our February 2023 market Commentary
This commentary reflects on the silver linings of the higher interest rate environment as well as explores the possible winners and losers under this new regime.
Cash-Like ETF Attracts $2.5 Billion in Biggest Haul Since 2020
Turbulent equity markets and lofty bond yields has cash back in high demand.
Probabilities and Consequences of Further Declines
For the first time in decades, Wall Street strategists are collectively pessimistic about the stock market over the coming year.
Better Early Than Late
Gold bugs started 2023 with high hopes after the precious metals sector showed impressive relative strength versus paper assets in 2022.