The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
The latest price of home heating oil nationwide dropped to its lowest price of the year at $4.13. The current price is down 5 cents from last week and down 76 cents compared to one year ago.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
As of March 20, the price of regular and premium gas were down 3 cents and 4 cents from the previous week, respectively. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.81 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.89. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.82 and is down 9.3% from last week.
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
The strongest force standing in the way of nuclear energy is the antiquated, irrational fear of it.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 17, 2023 at 3.39%, the two-year note ended at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 3.60%.
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.4% and up 5.4% YoY. However after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales decreased by 0.8% and were down 0.6% YoY.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
What our experts think about today's market action.
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year Headline CPI came in as expected at 6.0%, down from 6.4% the previous month (n.s.a). Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) also came in as expected at 5.5%, down from 5.6% the previous month (n.s.a).
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
In September 2021, Silvergate Bank, specializing in digital currency, was performing well. In fact, the bank reported record-breaking growth in deposits and loans in 2020, thanks in part to increased demand for its services from clients in the cryptocurrency industry.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of non-farm employment. February saw a 311,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%. The Investing.com forecast was for 205,000 jobs gained.
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
A new exchange-traded fund is making the case that having women at the top of corporations translates into better returns.
US job growth probably moderated last month after a blistering January pace, while the unemployment rate likely held at a 53-year low, illustrating a labor market that’s proved mostly impervious to the Federal Reserve’s massive interest-rate hikes.
North American developed market large-mid stocks (United States and Canada) bottomed simultaneously with other developed markets on 10/12/22, recovering over 10% since then.
If you read and pay attention to the world, you probably know the recent past pretty well. And if you’re a history buff like me, you also know something about the more distant past.
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
While the sanctions regime imposed on Russia has dented its economy, it is far less severe than those imposed on North Korea and Iran, which included penalties on third-party countries. Imposing secondary sanctions could tighten the screws on Putin, but also accelerate deglobalization.
Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms are beefing up agricultural markets expertise by hiring traders as big swings in prices have made even relatively niche corners of commodities trading lucrative during the past year.
A drawdown to fight energy inflation has left the SPR at a new low.
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
As of February 28, 2023, the 10-year note was 340 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020.
"We forgot that war is history’s favourite driver of inflation." -Niall Ferguson
As a young stockbroker in the 1980s, I was very enamored with T. Boone Pickens.
The February S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ hit a 3-month high coming in at 47.3, up 0.4 from the final January figure, and slightly worse than the Investing.com forecast of 47.8. This marks the fourth consecutive month in contraction territory, a streak we have not seen since 2020.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
The war has been tremendously costly, in Ukraine and beyond.
Low-volatility strategies are often cited as an anomaly offering higher returns without a corresponding increase in risk. But the so-called low-volatility factor is well explained by other factors, and new research shows it does not reduce exposure to “systemic,” broad-economic risks.
Research from Vanguard suggests that investing in commodities is the most powerful way to hedge against unexpected inflation.
Close to 90% of the world’s central banks are at some point in the process of creating their own digital currency. Are you ready?
In a dark future for humans on Wall Street, banks fire traders en masse as artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT take over bond and commodities markets that were once too tough to automate.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in January rose 0.71% and is up 7.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.09% and was up 1.6% year-over-year.
The S&P 500 is rising after falling the past four sessions as equites have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening.
After making more money than ever in the last few years, some of the world’s top energy traders are using the cash to expand in metals and agriculture.
On February 5, 2023, Charlie Munger sat down as the Chairman Emeritus of the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) to answer questions from shareholders and the public.
Sound policymaking has helped India modernize and achieve robust economic growth, positioning it to become an increasingly important player on the world stage.
Lithium’s recent price collapse and the prospect that supply from new mines could accelerate the slump are stoking fierce debate in the electric-car battery industry.
With the consumer price index increasing during the last few years at a rate not seen for nearly 40 years, the investing challenge for the coming year is finding ways to generate real returns during exceptionally high inflation.
Microchips are the foundation of the modern economy, but what are the geopolitical implications of this new power player? In this episode of The Active Share, Hugo spoke with Tufts University associate professor Chris Miller, author of the book Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, about the decades-long, globe-spanning battle to control one of the world’s most critical resources.
Federal Reserve officials like to call their decisions “data dependent.” Business leaders say it a little differently, often “data driven.” The point, in both cases, is something like: “We consider relevant data when making important decisions.”
Gold is nearing its strongest buy signal in four months as the U.S. dollar eases off a rally that’s carried the greenback to its highest point since early January.
The auto industry is navigating through shifting conditions in trade, policy, and preferences.
Last year marked a dramatic turn for US college endowments as hundreds of universities reported steep losses, reflecting the tumult in global markets.
Stocks mixed around mid-day as investors digest data.
Engine No. 1’s latest exchange-traded fund will focus on companies seeking to bring their operations closer to home after the pandemic upended global supply chains.
The booming US residential solar market is at a crossroads.
Contrarian investing requires extra due diligence to identify traits that give investors confidence and conviction to invest in a company when everything and everyone is against it.
Most think so.
Mexico is downstream of shifting trade winds.
While equity markets are on a relentless march higher amid optimism around stronger economic growth and cooling inflation, most investors aren’t convinced the gains will last, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest global fund manager survey.
The United States must grasp the opportunity that the money revolution has made possible by undertaking a government-financed investment program in 21st century industries and technologies on such a large scale that it would be certain to succeed.
Investors continued to increase their bets on two exchange-traded funds tied to natural gas as prices for the heating fuel show signs of bottoming following a seven-week selloff that sent the commodity plunging more than 60%.
The dark side of ESG investing has the potential to undermine a whole generation of clean-tech strategies.
Some growth companies could very well outperform the broader market indices, even in a recessionary period.
Oil headed for a weekly gain as a bullish outlook for Chinese demand outweighed lingering concerns over a global economic slowdown.
For all the fretting about the political standoff over the US debt ceiling, one fund manager sees the deadlock providing a boost to the stock market.
Assumptions can be wise or unwise. They can be unduly optimistic or excessively pessimistic. Slightly different assumptions can produce giant changes in predicted outcomes. Assumptions are necessary but we shouldn’t make them lightly, nor forget we are making them.
This Super Bowl will also be remembered, I believe, as a major turning point in sports betting in the U.S. More than 50 million American adults are expected to bet on the game, the most ever and a remarkable 61% increase from last year.
The US government is exploring narrowly focused trade pacts on critical minerals with Japan and the UK, in addition to talks with the European Union, the latest salvo in its push to counter Chinese influence in key sectors, officials familiar with the matter said.
Despite enduring a brutal start to the year for their portfolios thanks to a surprise market rally, two top-ranked fund managers are sticking to the bearish views that made them winners in the 2022 stock crash.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
After a bruising 2022 for equities globally, Value stocks in the U.S. have become attractive in an absolute sense and worthy of inclusion in one’s portfolio.
Stocks lower as investors digest data, Fed commentary.
Hedge funds and energy trading shops are scooping up index traders from banks, looking to capitalize on investors’ increasing interest in materials and the sector’s rising potential for outsized returns.
“Geopolitical recession” doesn’t exist as a defined term. But it should, according to Ian Bremmer. If relations among global powers were framed in economic terms, we would be in the “bust” phase of the business cycle, he said.
Inflation has turned a corner, but not yet for food.
The greening of red-state America, well underway in the Sun Belt, is now accelerating in the Midwest.
Monday’s trading saw oil rise as traders digested China’s return in demand against a continued supply strain and slower growth in world economies.
The US is preparing to slap a 200% tariff on Russian-made aluminum as soon as this week to keep pressure on Moscow as the one-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine nears, according to people familiar with the situation.
We are now seeing clear signs of a broad-based decline in inflation.
As a rout in the price of food commodities from wheat to cooking oil deepens, the cost of products on grocery shelves continues to rise.
Retail demand for bars and coins in the U.S. and Europe hit a new annual record last year in response to stubbornly high inflation and the war in Ukraine. Western investors gobbled up 427 tons (approximately 15 million ounces), the most since 2011.
The April Live Cattle futures, LCJ23, rallied as traders digested the United States Department of Agricultures (USDA) Cattle inventory report.
Energy
Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
Sinology: Opportunity and Risk
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
Markets Again Under Pressure
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Weekly Heating Oil Prices: Down 5 Cents
The latest price of home heating oil nationwide dropped to its lowest price of the year at $4.13. The current price is down 5 cents from last week and down 76 cents compared to one year ago.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Stocks Climb Ahead of Fed Meeting
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Down 9.3% from Last Week
As of March 20, the price of regular and premium gas were down 3 cents and 4 cents from the previous week, respectively. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.81 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.89. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.82 and is down 9.3% from last week.
Incremental Progress Emerging in the Banking Sector Fallout
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Sustainable Investing: Opportunistically Managing Risk
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
The Fed’s Got Inflation Backwards
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
Lies, Damn Lies, and Visions of Nuclear Catastrophe
The strongest force standing in the way of nuclear energy is the antiquated, irrational fear of it.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 17, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 17, 2023 at 3.39%, the two-year note ended at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 3.60%.
Banking Sector Uncertainty Keeps Pressure on Stocks
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
The Big Four: February Real Retail Sales Down 0.8%
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.4% and up 5.4% YoY. However after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales decreased by 0.8% and were down 0.6% YoY.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: February 2023
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Bank Worries Strike Again
What our experts think about today's market action.
Stocks Falling as European Banking Worries Flare Up
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
Recent Bank Failures a Potential Game-Changer for The Fed
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Consumer Price Index: February Headline at 6.0%, Down from January
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year Headline CPI came in as expected at 6.0%, down from 6.4% the previous month (n.s.a). Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) also came in as expected at 5.5%, down from 5.6% the previous month (n.s.a).
Stocks Remain Under Pressure as Banking Worries Remain
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
Bitcoin Is A Key Component Of The Great Digital Transformation
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
Bank Dominoes Falling
In September 2021, Silvergate Bank, specializing in digital currency, was performing well. In fact, the bank reported record-breaking growth in deposits and loans in 2020, thanks in part to increased demand for its services from clients in the cryptocurrency industry.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: February Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of non-farm employment. February saw a 311,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%. The Investing.com forecast was for 205,000 jobs gained.
Stocks Trying to Battle Back From a Two-Day Rout
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Stocks Chipping Away at Weekly Losses
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
China’s Green Enablers Deserve a Place in Equity Funds
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
Biden to Urge 25% Billionaire Tax, Levies on Rich Investors
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
Fund of Women-Run Firms Is Beating the S&P 500 Since Launching
A new exchange-traded fund is making the case that having women at the top of corporations translates into better returns.
US Jobs Report and Powell Testimony Take Center Stage
US job growth probably moderated last month after a blistering January pace, while the unemployment rate likely held at a 53-year low, illustrating a labor market that’s proved mostly impervious to the Federal Reserve’s massive interest-rate hikes.
North America Sector Performance Since the October Low
North American developed market large-mid stocks (United States and Canada) bottomed simultaneously with other developed markets on 10/12/22, recovering over 10% since then.
How It Started/How It's Going
If you read and pay attention to the world, you probably know the recent past pretty well. And if you’re a history buff like me, you also know something about the more distant past.
Airline Stocks Are Soaring Over The Negative Headlines, Lifted By Positive Earnings
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
Why the Russia Sanctions Are Missing the Mark
While the sanctions regime imposed on Russia has dented its economy, it is far less severe than those imposed on North Korea and Iran, which included penalties on third-party countries. Imposing secondary sanctions could tighten the screws on Putin, but also accelerate deglobalization.
Crop Traders in High Demand at Hedge Funds Looking to Cash In on Commodities
Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms are beefing up agricultural markets expertise by hiring traders as big swings in prices have made even relatively niche corners of commodities trading lucrative during the past year.
Finding the Will to Refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
A drawdown to fight energy inflation has left the SPR at a new low.
Fed's Path to Cooling Inflation Continues to Loom Large
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of February 28, 2023, the 10-year note was 340 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020.
One Year On
"We forgot that war is history’s favourite driver of inflation." -Niall Ferguson
Drilling for Oil on the NYSE
As a young stockbroker in the 1980s, I was very enamored with T. Boone Pickens.
February S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Softest Decline in 3 Months
The February S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ hit a 3-month high coming in at 47.3, up 0.4 from the final January figure, and slightly worse than the Investing.com forecast of 47.8. This marks the fourth consecutive month in contraction territory, a streak we have not seen since 2020.
How Russia’s War Has Shifted the Geopolitical Landscape
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Stocks Muted as Choppiness Remains
U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
One Year of War in Ukraine
The war has been tremendously costly, in Ukraine and beyond.
Beware of Low-Volatility Portfolios
Low-volatility strategies are often cited as an anomaly offering higher returns without a corresponding increase in risk. But the so-called low-volatility factor is well explained by other factors, and new research shows it does not reduce exposure to “systemic,” broad-economic risks.
Vanguard’s Research on Commodities as an Inflation Hedge
Research from Vanguard suggests that investing in commodities is the most powerful way to hedge against unexpected inflation.
Your CBDC Survival Guide
Close to 90% of the world’s central banks are at some point in the process of creating their own digital currency. Are you ready?
Wall Street's ChatGPT Nightmare Is Over Before It Starts as Banks Crack Down
In a dark future for humans on Wall Street, banks fire traders en masse as artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT take over bond and commodities markets that were once too tough to automate.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in January
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in January rose 0.71% and is up 7.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.09% and was up 1.6% year-over-year.
Stocks Higher After String of Losses
The S&P 500 is rising after falling the past four sessions as equites have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening.
Energy Traders, Flush With Cash, Are Moving Into Crops and Metals
After making more money than ever in the last few years, some of the world’s top energy traders are using the cash to expand in metals and agriculture.
Ramblings From My Idol, Charlie Munger
On February 5, 2023, Charlie Munger sat down as the Chairman Emeritus of the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) to answer questions from shareholders and the public.
India at a Crossroads
Sound policymaking has helped India modernize and achieve robust economic growth, positioning it to become an increasingly important player on the world stage.
Lithium's Plunge Is Pitting Cathie Wood Against Sector Veterans
Lithium’s recent price collapse and the prospect that supply from new mines could accelerate the slump are stoking fierce debate in the electric-car battery industry.
The Top Six Investments for Inflation in 2023
With the consumer price index increasing during the last few years at a rate not seen for nearly 40 years, the investing challenge for the coming year is finding ways to generate real returns during exceptionally high inflation.
Episode 35: Are Microchips the New Oil?
Microchips are the foundation of the modern economy, but what are the geopolitical implications of this new power player? In this episode of The Active Share, Hugo spoke with Tufts University associate professor Chris Miller, author of the book Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, about the decades-long, globe-spanning battle to control one of the world’s most critical resources.
Adjustments Matter
Federal Reserve officials like to call their decisions “data dependent.” Business leaders say it a little differently, often “data driven.” The point, in both cases, is something like: “We consider relevant data when making important decisions.”
Gold Nearing Strongest Buy Signal In Four Months
Gold is nearing its strongest buy signal in four months as the U.S. dollar eases off a rally that’s carried the greenback to its highest point since early January.
Driving Change
The auto industry is navigating through shifting conditions in trade, policy, and preferences.
US College Endowment Returns Tumbled in 2022 During Market Rout
Last year marked a dramatic turn for US college endowments as hundreds of universities reported steep losses, reflecting the tumult in global markets.
Today's Options Market Update
Stocks mixed around mid-day as investors digest data.
Activist Investor Engine No. 1 Launches Supply Chain ETF
Engine No. 1’s latest exchange-traded fund will focus on companies seeking to bring their operations closer to home after the pandemic upended global supply chains.
US Solar Surge Collides With Higher Rates and Shifting Economics
The booming US residential solar market is at a crossroads.
FedEx: A Case Study In Contrarian Investing
Contrarian investing requires extra due diligence to identify traits that give investors confidence and conviction to invest in a company when everything and everyone is against it.
Are We Having a Recession or Not?
Most think so.
Mexico is in A Good Position
Mexico is downstream of shifting trade winds.
BofA Survey Shows Investors Expect Stock Rally to Fizzle Out
While equity markets are on a relentless march higher amid optimism around stronger economic growth and cooling inflation, most investors aren’t convinced the gains will last, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest global fund manager survey.
America Must Invest
The United States must grasp the opportunity that the money revolution has made possible by undertaking a government-financed investment program in 21st century industries and technologies on such a large scale that it would be certain to succeed.
Gas ETF Gains $518 Million in Flows Despite Price at Record Low
Investors continued to increase their bets on two exchange-traded funds tied to natural gas as prices for the heating fuel show signs of bottoming following a seven-week selloff that sent the commodity plunging more than 60%.
Commodities Risk Lurking in ESG Funds Is Now Too Big to Ignore
The dark side of ESG investing has the potential to undermine a whole generation of clean-tech strategies.
Five Reasons We See Opportunities in Growth Companies in 2023
Some growth companies could very well outperform the broader market indices, even in a recessionary period.
Oil Set for Weekly Gain on Optimism Over China’s Demand Outlook
Oil headed for a weekly gain as a bullish outlook for Chinese demand outweighed lingering concerns over a global economic slowdown.
Debt Ceiling Fight May Boost US Stocks, Says Pictet Fund Manager
For all the fretting about the political standoff over the US debt ceiling, one fund manager sees the deadlock providing a boost to the stock market.
Assumptions Have Consequences
Assumptions can be wise or unwise. They can be unduly optimistic or excessively pessimistic. Slightly different assumptions can produce giant changes in predicted outcomes. Assumptions are necessary but we shouldn’t make them lightly, nor forget we are making them.
The Real Reason Why 50 Million Americans Will Be Betting On The Super Bowl
This Super Bowl will also be remembered, I believe, as a major turning point in sports betting in the U.S. More than 50 million American adults are expected to bet on the game, the most ever and a remarkable 61% increase from last year.
US Seeks Critical-Mineral Pacts With Japan, UK to Curb China
The US government is exploring narrowly focused trade pacts on critical minerals with Japan and the UK, in addition to talks with the European Union, the latest salvo in its push to counter Chinese influence in key sectors, officials familiar with the matter said.
Stock Rally Is a Bear-Market Trap, Top-Ranked Fund Managers Say
Despite enduring a brutal start to the year for their portfolios thanks to a surprise market rally, two top-ranked fund managers are sticking to the bearish views that made them winners in the 2022 stock crash.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
What is Value? Methodology Matters
After a bruising 2022 for equities globally, Value stocks in the U.S. have become attractive in an absolute sense and worthy of inclusion in one’s portfolio.
Today's Options Market Update
Stocks lower as investors digest data, Fed commentary.
Hedge Funds Are Luring Away Banks' Top Commodity Index Traders
Hedge funds and energy trading shops are scooping up index traders from banks, looking to capitalize on investors’ increasing interest in materials and the sector’s rising potential for outsized returns.
Ian Bremmer: We are in a Geopolitical Recession
“Geopolitical recession” doesn’t exist as a defined term. But it should, according to Ian Bremmer. If relations among global powers were framed in economic terms, we would be in the “bust” phase of the business cycle, he said.
Sticky Food Prices
Inflation has turned a corner, but not yet for food.
Solar Panels Are the Midwest's New Cash Crop as Green Energy Booms
The greening of red-state America, well underway in the Sun Belt, is now accelerating in the Midwest.
China Demands More Oil
Monday’s trading saw oil rise as traders digested China’s return in demand against a continued supply strain and slower growth in world economies.
US Plans 200% Tariff on Russia Aluminum as Soon as This Week
The US is preparing to slap a 200% tariff on Russian-made aluminum as soon as this week to keep pressure on Moscow as the one-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine nears, according to people familiar with the situation.
Disinflation is Just Getting Started
We are now seeing clear signs of a broad-based decline in inflation.
Food Costs Are Tumbling But Shoppers Still Face Soaring Bills
As a rout in the price of food commodities from wheat to cooking oil deepens, the cost of products on grocery shelves continues to rise.
Gold and Copper Look Well-Positioned in 2023
Retail demand for bars and coins in the U.S. and Europe hit a new annual record last year in response to stubbornly high inflation and the war in Ukraine. Western investors gobbled up 427 tons (approximately 15 million ounces), the most since 2011.
Live Cattle Rallies on Inventory Report
The April Live Cattle futures, LCJ23, rallied as traders digested the United States Department of Agricultures (USDA) Cattle inventory report.