Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town).
Gold appears to be well-positioned for a strong pump that could carry it to new all-time high prices in 2023—and beyond. As you know, I’ve been following and writing about the precious metal market for a very long time, and I see a number of unique catalysts at the moment that could contribute to higher gold prices.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. have begun preparations for a trio of the year’s biggest Chinese debuts, heralding a wave of initial public offerings that promise to breathe new life into the struggling technology industry and Hong Kong’s stock market.
Stocks built on overnight gains and Treasury yields inched lower following today's relatively benign February PCE inflation data.
Everyone insisting America isn't up to managing the world’s No. 1 economy after the Covid-19 pandemic caused the highest joblessness since the Great Depression and biggest cost-of-living increase in 40 years should ask...
Up until recently, crude oil inventories saw continued build after build, suggesting the real time supply and demand dynamics in the market have been tilted toward the bearish side of the ledger.
When we talk about shadow banking, we think of China, one of the world’s most indebted nations. Lending by companies that do not own a banking license has reached 50 trillion yuan ($7.3 trillion), or about 42% of gross domestic product, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
Elon Musk and an array of public figures have signed their names to an open letter that went viral this week, calling for a six-month pause on training language models more powerful than GPT-4, the technology underpinning ChatGPT.
Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for March is -13.7, down from the previous month.
The bipartisan push to ban TikTok in the US reflects both the growing distrust of China and lawmakers’ limited understanding of the tech world.
The dollar has lost some of its luster over the winter. The twin supports of its status as the preferred haven during the pandemic and being backed by the world’s strongest economy are fading.
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to investigate the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB/SIVBQ) that brought to discussion possible changes for the entire banking system.
For millions of borrowers, student loan forgiveness will mean the difference between significant relief and ongoing payments. If you’re among them, the question is… what next?
Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 27, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 9.34%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 8.33%, and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 moved to third with a YTD gain of 5.30%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.24% YTD.
The economic signals and a host of geopolitical risks confronting investors suggest that 2023 could be as challenging as 20022 for both stocks and bonds.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at 0, unchanged from last month's figure. The future outlook came in at 3, up 2 from last month.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Easing financial conditions globally have made Morgan Stanley “outright bullish” on growth stocks in Asia and emerging markets versus their value peers.
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
The strongest force standing in the way of nuclear energy is the antiquated, irrational fear of it.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
Portfolio manager Peeyush Mittal and research analyst Swagato Ghosh say India has a fiscal playbook to chart a path of stability and growth.
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
101 Lesson of Structural growth versus recovery growth investing.
China can match the US in artificial intelligence thanks to the expertise of companies from Alibaba to Baidu, joining a global tech transformation that will dwarf the mobile revolution, according to industry pioneer Kai-Fu Lee.
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Silicon Valley Bank became the biggest US lender to fail in more than a decade, creating fears of contagion in tech and finance sectors in the US and around the world.
Can India capitalize on supply chain realignment to build its manufacturing sector?
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Head of Portfolio Strategy David Dali explains why it’s an opportune time to add emerging-market exposure.
Some money secrets within a couples are matters of privacy or convenience, while others cross a line into financial infidelity.
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
History shows a high risk of recession when central banks fight inflation.
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
For decades since the end of the Cold War there have been very limited restrictions on foreign investments by US investors compared to those of other countries.
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
Alessio de Longis spent the last three months loading up on risk in his $1.1 billion Invesco Global Allocation Fund. Now, he’s winding down those positions and reversing course back to safety.
European stocks have outperformed this year as China’s economy restarts and the energy shock proved less severe than expected.
US job growth probably moderated last month after a blistering January pace, while the unemployment rate likely held at a 53-year low, illustrating a labor market that’s proved mostly impervious to the Federal Reserve’s massive interest-rate hikes.
More women in senior roles will support the long-term success and sustainability of emerging markets.
With bonds and stocks once again falling in unison, cash is the ultimate refuge.
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
While the sanctions regime imposed on Russia has dented its economy, it is far less severe than those imposed on North Korea and Iran, which included penalties on third-party countries. Imposing secondary sanctions could tighten the screws on Putin, but also accelerate deglobalization.
Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms are beefing up agricultural markets expertise by hiring traders as big swings in prices have made even relatively niche corners of commodities trading lucrative during the past year.
A drawdown to fight energy inflation has left the SPR at a new low.
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
Medical Properties Trust’s dividend at the 2022 rate of $1.16 is safe even if Prospect, its third-largest operator, does not pay a single cent in 2023.
Maybe UFOs are carrying wealthy aliens wanting to buy a lot of stuff and boost our economy. More likely, those forecasting a no landing have a false sense of optimism that the economy will continue to be resilient.
China has pledged to invest an additional $1.9 billion in the country’s biggest maker of memory chips, a deal that may herald a renewed influx of government capital into an industry hemmed in by US sanctions.
"We forgot that war is history’s favourite driver of inflation." -Niall Ferguson
In recent years we have witnessed a surge in sovereign bond defaults in emerging markets.
Strength in employment and inflation has caused markets to raise the implied terminal rate while still expecting the Fed to normalize policy – which is different from easing – in 2024.
Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons.
U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
In just one month, emerging Asian assets have gone from a buy to sell. And all signs point to continued caution as March draws near.
Gold bugs started 2023 with high hopes after the precious metals sector showed impressive relative strength versus paper assets in 2022.
The war has been tremendously costly, in Ukraine and beyond.
Valuations have reset after a volatile year.
A cohort of Wall Street’s emerging-market bulls is growing wary of calling a new dawn for riskier assets, opting for a more cautious approach to developing-nation currencies.
The asset management unit of JPMorgan Chase & Co. has wiped its ESG portfolios clean of their exposure to the Adani empire.
Debt isn’t forever but can definitely seem like it. That feeling is a clue you have too much debt. Wisely used, debt helps build income-generating assets that pay for themselves. The payments are manageable because you’re also getting something else of value.
Close to 90% of the world’s central banks are at some point in the process of creating their own digital currency. Are you ready?
Markets are unpredictable, which is one of many reasons it is difficult to consistently deliver alpha over long periods. In their latest commentary, our small cap growth team explains why their approach to managing the trade-off between risk and reward gives them the opportunity to outperform across market cycles.
As President Joe Biden’s administration prepares to accept requests for $39 billion in funding to jumpstart US production of microchips, his commerce chief emphasized the program’s focus is strengthening national security rather than boosting struggling chipmakers.
Many investors believe that gold is a safe long-term investment that can be used to hedge against risk. But should you include this precious metal in your retirement portfolio?
In a dark future for humans on Wall Street, banks fire traders en masse as artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT take over bond and commodities markets that were once too tough to automate.
One year after the invasion, Senior Sovereign Analyst Hassan Malik looks at the state of affairs in the Russia-Ukraine war and what has (and hasn't) changed.
The S&P 500 is rising after falling the past four sessions as equites have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening.
The rally in Chinese artificial intelligence stocks is showing further signs of cooling amid media reports of authorities banning access to OpenAI’s ChatGPT service.
Some of the world’s largest economies ramped up calls to increase support to troubled emerging countries ahead of a Group of 20 finance chiefs meeting.
Emerging Markets
Disturbing Thoughts
Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town).
The Top Three Catalysts For Higher Gold Prices In 2023
Gold appears to be well-positioned for a strong pump that could carry it to new all-time high prices in 2023—and beyond. As you know, I’ve been following and writing about the precious metal market for a very long time, and I see a number of unique catalysts at the moment that could contribute to higher gold prices.
Alibaba, JD.com Awaken China Tech’s Long-Dormant IPO Machine
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. have begun preparations for a trio of the year’s biggest Chinese debuts, heralding a wave of initial public offerings that promise to breathe new life into the struggling technology industry and Hong Kong’s stock market.
Price Growth Slows, Stocks Gain
Stocks built on overnight gains and Treasury yields inched lower following today's relatively benign February PCE inflation data.
Fed Critics Are Missing Some Important Context
Everyone insisting America isn't up to managing the world’s No. 1 economy after the Covid-19 pandemic caused the highest joblessness since the Great Depression and biggest cost-of-living increase in 40 years should ask...
A Contrarian Buying Opportunity For Energy Bulls
Up until recently, crude oil inventories saw continued build after build, suggesting the real time supply and demand dynamics in the market have been tilted toward the bearish side of the ledger.
Worried About Shadow Banking? Don’t Look at China
When we talk about shadow banking, we think of China, one of the world’s most indebted nations. Lending by companies that do not own a banking license has reached 50 trillion yuan ($7.3 trillion), or about 42% of gross domestic product, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
Elon Musk Wants to Pause AI? It’s Too Late for That
Elon Musk and an array of public figures have signed their names to an open letter that went viral this week, calling for a six-month pause on training language models more powerful than GPT-4, the technology underpinning ChatGPT.
March Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview
Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for March is -13.7, down from the previous month.
Tick TikTok Goes Globalization
The bipartisan push to ban TikTok in the US reflects both the growing distrust of China and lawmakers’ limited understanding of the tech world.
The Dollar's Coming Slide Will Be Welcomed by the World
The dollar has lost some of its luster over the winter. The twin supports of its status as the preferred haven during the pandemic and being backed by the world’s strongest economy are fading.
Proposed Bank Changes and Fed Comments
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to investigate the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB/SIVBQ) that brought to discussion possible changes for the entire banking system.
The Supreme Court May Quash Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness: Here's What Borrowers Should Do
For millions of borrowers, student loan forgiveness will mean the difference between significant relief and ongoing payments. If you’re among them, the question is… what next?
World Markets Update: March 27, 2023
Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 27, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 9.34%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 8.33%, and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 moved to third with a YTD gain of 5.30%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.24% YTD.
First Quarter 2023 Economic Review and Forecast
The economic signals and a host of geopolitical risks confronting investors suggest that 2023 could be as challenging as 20022 for both stocks and bonds.
Market and Economic Dynamics to Keep an Eye On
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Recession Odds Rising
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
Sinology: Opportunity and Risk
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
Markets Again Under Pressure
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Stayed Flat
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at 0, unchanged from last month's figure. The future outlook came in at 3, up 2 from last month.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Morgan Stanley Turns ‘Outright Bullish’ on Asian Growth Stocks
Easing financial conditions globally have made Morgan Stanley “outright bullish” on growth stocks in Asia and emerging markets versus their value peers.
GLP-Backed Fund to Raise $100 Million for Asian Fintech Deals
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
Biggest Fear for Trillion-Dollar Funds Is Missing Next Rally
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
Incremental Progress Emerging in the Banking Sector Fallout
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Two Sides of Healthcare, One Strong Investment Case
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
A Multi-Asset Perspective on Recent Bank Turmoil: Don’t Lose Sight of the Macro Story
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
Lies, Damn Lies, and Visions of Nuclear Catastrophe
The strongest force standing in the way of nuclear energy is the antiquated, irrational fear of it.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Banking Sector Uncertainty Keeps Pressure on Stocks
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
India’s Balancing Act
Portfolio manager Peeyush Mittal and research analyst Swagato Ghosh say India has a fiscal playbook to chart a path of stability and growth.
Stocks Falling as European Banking Worries Flare Up
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
Chinese Internet – the Boom and Bust Story
101 Lesson of Structural growth versus recovery growth investing.
China Can Quickly Catch Up to US AI, Says Venture Veteran
China can match the US in artificial intelligence thanks to the expertise of companies from Alibaba to Baidu, joining a global tech transformation that will dwarf the mobile revolution, according to industry pioneer Kai-Fu Lee.
Recent Bank Failures a Potential Game-Changer for The Fed
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Here’s How SVB’s Collapse Is Reverberating Around the World
Silicon Valley Bank became the biggest US lender to fail in more than a decade, creating fears of contagion in tech and finance sectors in the US and around the world.
India Seeks More Manufacturing
Can India capitalize on supply chain realignment to build its manufacturing sector?
Stocks Remain Under Pressure as Banking Worries Remain
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
Thousand-Word Equivalents
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.
Bitcoin Is A Key Component Of The Great Digital Transformation
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Stocks Trying to Battle Back From a Two-Day Rout
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Add Emerging Market Strength in Global Weakness
Head of Portfolio Strategy David Dali explains why it’s an opportune time to add emerging-market exposure.
When Does Money Secrecy Become Financial Infidelity?
Some money secrets within a couples are matters of privacy or convenience, while others cross a line into financial infidelity.
Stocks Chipping Away at Weekly Losses
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
China’s Green Enablers Deserve a Place in Equity Funds
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
Hard to Achieve a Soft Landing
History shows a high risk of recession when central banks fight inflation.
Are Cheap Burgers in Emerging Markets a Good Sign for Investors?
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
Gundlach: We Could Have the Worst Default Cycle Ever
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
The US and China: The Tech Cold War Continues
For decades since the end of the Cold War there have been very limited restrictions on foreign investments by US investors compared to those of other countries.
Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1 February 2023
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
How a Billion-Dollar Invesco Fund Did a U-Turn After Hot Inflation Data
Alessio de Longis spent the last three months loading up on risk in his $1.1 billion Invesco Global Allocation Fund. Now, he’s winding down those positions and reversing course back to safety.
Europe: Sticky Inflation Favors Income
European stocks have outperformed this year as China’s economy restarts and the energy shock proved less severe than expected.
US Jobs Report and Powell Testimony Take Center Stage
US job growth probably moderated last month after a blistering January pace, while the unemployment rate likely held at a 53-year low, illustrating a labor market that’s proved mostly impervious to the Federal Reserve’s massive interest-rate hikes.
The Value of Women Across the Board
More women in senior roles will support the long-term success and sustainability of emerging markets.
BofA Strategists See Cash Back in Vogue With Markets on Edge
With bonds and stocks once again falling in unison, cash is the ultimate refuge.
Airline Stocks Are Soaring Over The Negative Headlines, Lifted By Positive Earnings
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
Why the Russia Sanctions Are Missing the Mark
While the sanctions regime imposed on Russia has dented its economy, it is far less severe than those imposed on North Korea and Iran, which included penalties on third-party countries. Imposing secondary sanctions could tighten the screws on Putin, but also accelerate deglobalization.
Crop Traders in High Demand at Hedge Funds Looking to Cash In on Commodities
Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms are beefing up agricultural markets expertise by hiring traders as big swings in prices have made even relatively niche corners of commodities trading lucrative during the past year.
Bonds Haven’t Been This Attractive Since 2008
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Finding the Will to Refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
A drawdown to fight energy inflation has left the SPR at a new low.
Navigating A Turbulent Environment: EM IG To The Rescue
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
Fed's Path to Cooling Inflation Continues to Loom Large
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
Medical Properties Trust: 11.26% Yield – The Risk is Priced In
Medical Properties Trust’s dividend at the 2022 rate of $1.16 is safe even if Prospect, its third-largest operator, does not pay a single cent in 2023.
The "No Landing" Scenario is as Likely as UFOs
Maybe UFOs are carrying wealthy aliens wanting to buy a lot of stuff and boost our economy. More likely, those forecasting a no landing have a false sense of optimism that the economy will continue to be resilient.
China Plans to Inject $1.9 Billion Into Top Memory Chipmaker
China has pledged to invest an additional $1.9 billion in the country’s biggest maker of memory chips, a deal that may herald a renewed influx of government capital into an industry hemmed in by US sanctions.
One Year On
"We forgot that war is history’s favourite driver of inflation." -Niall Ferguson
The Many Faces of Sovereign Default
In recent years we have witnessed a surge in sovereign bond defaults in emerging markets.
Data Alters Market's Expectations for Peak Policy Rate But Not Outlook for Fed Cuts
Strength in employment and inflation has caused markets to raise the implied terminal rate while still expecting the Fed to normalize policy – which is different from easing – in 2024.
International Equities: Poised for Recovery
Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons.
How Russia’s War Has Shifted the Geopolitical Landscape
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Stocks Muted as Choppiness Remains
U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
Frightful February Ends Call to Buy Everything in Emerging Asia
In just one month, emerging Asian assets have gone from a buy to sell. And all signs point to continued caution as March draws near.
Better Early Than Late
Gold bugs started 2023 with high hopes after the precious metals sector showed impressive relative strength versus paper assets in 2022.
One Year of War in Ukraine
The war has been tremendously costly, in Ukraine and beyond.
First Quarter 2023 Fixed-Income Sector Views
Valuations have reset after a volatile year.
Emerging Markets Will Have to Weather Another Dollar Hurrah
A cohort of Wall Street’s emerging-market bulls is growing wary of calling a new dawn for riskier assets, opting for a more cautious approach to developing-nation currencies.
JPMorgan Investment Arm Purges Its ESG Funds of Adani Stocks
The asset management unit of JPMorgan Chase & Co. has wiped its ESG portfolios clean of their exposure to the Adani empire.
Deficits Forever
Debt isn’t forever but can definitely seem like it. That feeling is a clue you have too much debt. Wisely used, debt helps build income-generating assets that pay for themselves. The payments are manageable because you’re also getting something else of value.
Your CBDC Survival Guide
Close to 90% of the world’s central banks are at some point in the process of creating their own digital currency. Are you ready?
Small Cap Growth Investing Across Market Cycles
Markets are unpredictable, which is one of many reasons it is difficult to consistently deliver alpha over long periods. In their latest commentary, our small cap growth team explains why their approach to managing the trade-off between risk and reward gives them the opportunity to outperform across market cycles.
US Takes Security-First Focus in Doling Out $39 Billion Chip Aid
As President Joe Biden’s administration prepares to accept requests for $39 billion in funding to jumpstart US production of microchips, his commerce chief emphasized the program’s focus is strengthening national security rather than boosting struggling chipmakers.
Should You Invest in Gold for Retirement?
Many investors believe that gold is a safe long-term investment that can be used to hedge against risk. But should you include this precious metal in your retirement portfolio?
Wall Street's ChatGPT Nightmare Is Over Before It Starts as Banks Crack Down
In a dark future for humans on Wall Street, banks fire traders en masse as artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT take over bond and commodities markets that were once too tough to automate.
One Year Into the Russia-Ukraine War, and No End in Sight
One year after the invasion, Senior Sovereign Analyst Hassan Malik looks at the state of affairs in the Russia-Ukraine war and what has (and hasn't) changed.
Stocks Higher After String of Losses
The S&P 500 is rising after falling the past four sessions as equites have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening.
China's ChatGPT Stock Frenzy Cools Amid Reported Regulatory Ban
The rally in Chinese artificial intelligence stocks is showing further signs of cooling amid media reports of authorities banning access to OpenAI’s ChatGPT service.
Calls Grow for Global Finance Architecture Reform Amid Debt Woes
Some of the world’s largest economies ramped up calls to increase support to troubled emerging countries ahead of a Group of 20 finance chiefs meeting.