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Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.4% and up 5.4% YoY. However after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales decreased by 0.8% and were down 0.6% YoY.

Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

The latest manufacturing index came in at -23.2, up 1.1 from last month's -24.3, marking the index's seventh negative reading in a row.. The three-month moving average is now at -18.8, down from last month and the lowest since June 2020. The six-month outlook was down 9.7 points to -8.0. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (40) at 44, up 2 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last six months.

This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions dropped 18.8 points from last month to -24.6. This morning's reading was far below the Investing.com forecast of -8.0. This month's reading marks the fourth consecutive month in contraction territory.

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February was released this morning. Headline sales came in slightly below forecast at -0.4% month-over-month. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -0.1% month-over-month, in line with the forecast.

The morning's release of the February Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was at -0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from last month's 0.3% increase. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) was at 0.0% month-over-month, down from last month's 0.4% increase. Both headline and core PPI came in lower than their respective Investing.com forecasts, with headline expectations at 0.3% and core expectations at 0.4%.

We are currently seeing some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.

I've updated our monthly workforceanalysis to include the latest employment report for February. The unemployment rate increased to 3.6%, and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 311K.

The headline number for February came in at 90.9, up 0.6 from the previous month, but still below the series average of 98.2.  The index is at the 9th percentile in this series.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year Headline CPI came in as expected at 6.0%, down from 6.4% the previous month (n.s.a). Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) also came in as expected at 5.5%, down from 5.6% the previous month (n.s.a).

Let's take a close look at February's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.

The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 311,000 nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 291,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 20,000 goods-producing jobs.

This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of non-farm employment. February saw a 311,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%. The Investing.com forecast was for 205,000 jobs gained.

This is a couple months past its release, but the latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth for households and nonprofit organizations that is 149% above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q4 2022 net worth is down up 2.0% from the previous quarter and down 2.7% year-over-year.

The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report, with data through January, is now available.

The U.S. international trade in goods and services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$68.2B was better than the -68.9B Investing.com forecast, however it is the largest gap we have seen in the last 3 months.

The February US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 50.6 percent, notably up from 46.8 in January and just slightly higher than the Investing.com forecast of 50.5. This morning's reading moves the index into expansion territory after being in contraction for seven months.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released its February services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 55.1 percent, down 0.1 from 55.2 last month. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 54.5 percent.

Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.

"Travel on all roads and streets changed by -1.8% (-4.6 billion vehicle miles) for December 2022 as compared with December 2021. Travel for the month is estimated to be 256.4 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was down month-over-month by 2.87% and was up 0.9% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) dropped 2.9% month-over-month and was down 0.1% year-over-year.

This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for February. The latest headline purchasing managers index (PMI) was 47.7, up 0.3 from the previous month and worse than the Investing.com forecast of 48.0. This marks the fourth consecutive month in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020.

The February S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ hit a 3-month high coming in at 47.3, up 0.4 from the final January figure, and slightly worse than the Investing.com forecast of 47.8. This marks the fourth consecutive month in contraction territory, a streak we have not seen since 2020.

The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index ® this morning, with the headline number coming in at 102.9, a decrease of 3.1 from the downwardly revised final reading of 106.0 in January. This month's reading is worse than the Investing.com forecast of 108.5.

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, dropped to 43.6 in February from 44.3 in January, marking the sixth straight month in contraction territory. This reading comes in below the Investing.com forecast of 45.0.

With this morning's release of the December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.51% decrease month-over-month (MoM), matching the Investing.com forecast, and a 4.67% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.3% and the YoY was reduced to -2.7%.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for December. U.S. house prices decreased by 0.1% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 6.6% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.1% in December and up 0.6% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for February. The latest general business activity index came in at -13.5, down 5.1 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the January data for its pending home sales index. According to the NAR, "Pending home sales improved in January for the second consecutive month."

The second estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.7% (2.68% to two decimal places), a decrease from 3.2% (3.24% to two decimal places) for the Q3 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.1% (2.08% to two decimal places).

The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in January rose 0.71% and is up 7.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.09% and was up 1.6% year-over-year.

With the release of this morning's report on January's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 1.98% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 1.35% when we adjust for inflation. This is a steep increase from last month's .37% nominal and 0.17% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 1.98% nominal and 2.34% real.

Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q4 2022.