The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
As interest rates show signs of peaking, gold prices are nearing new all-time highs.
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
The latest price of home heating oil nationwide dropped to its lowest price of the year at $4.13. The current price is down 5 cents from last week and down 76 cents compared to one year ago.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
As of March 20, the price of regular and premium gas were down 3 cents and 4 cents from the previous week, respectively. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.81 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.89. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.82 and is down 9.3% from last week.
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
The national news cycle has careened from one extraordinary and alarming story to the next.
Five of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 20, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 8.33%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 6.94%, and China's Shanghai moved to third with a YTD gain of 4.71%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.28% YTD.
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
The strongest force standing in the way of nuclear energy is the antiquated, irrational fear of it.
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Fears of bank runs precipitating a broader financial crisis helped spark a surge in bullion buying this week.
The politics of the status quo creates the illusion of action, fostering the image that Social Security is a hot topic that has captured the attention of Washington.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 17, 2023 at 3.39%, the two-year note ended at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 3.60%.
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.4% and up 5.4% YoY. However after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales decreased by 0.8% and were down 0.6% YoY.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
What our experts think about today's market action.
The banking earthquake is sending shockwaves through the financial markets. The financial and economic aftershocks, soon to follow, are underappreciated and will prove worse than the earthquake.
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
China can match the US in artificial intelligence thanks to the expertise of companies from Alibaba to Baidu, joining a global tech transformation that will dwarf the mobile revolution, according to industry pioneer Kai-Fu Lee.
The events that began with Thursday’s tumult in financial stocks and precipitated the FDIC takeover of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were swift.
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year Headline CPI came in as expected at 6.0%, down from 6.4% the previous month (n.s.a). Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) also came in as expected at 5.5%, down from 5.6% the previous month (n.s.a).
The high-profile collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week is a story about bad debt, just not in the way most people think.
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
Warren Buffett defended stock buybacks in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter, pushing back on those railing against the practice he believes benefits all shareholders.
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
In September 2021, Silvergate Bank, specializing in digital currency, was performing well. In fact, the bank reported record-breaking growth in deposits and loans in 2020, thanks in part to increased demand for its services from clients in the cryptocurrency industry.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of non-farm employment. February saw a 311,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%. The Investing.com forecast was for 205,000 jobs gained.
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed could hike rates more and more often.
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
The U.S. international trade in goods and services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$68.2B was better than the -68.9B Investing.com forecast, however it is the largest gap we have seen in the last 3 months.
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
As automakers seek stakes in lithium miners to lock in supplies for electric-vehicle batteries, they’re following a path already forged by their shareholders.
European stocks have outperformed this year as China’s economy restarts and the energy shock proved less severe than expected.
US job growth probably moderated last month after a blistering January pace, while the unemployment rate likely held at a 53-year low, illustrating a labor market that’s proved mostly impervious to the Federal Reserve’s massive interest-rate hikes.
I took ChatGPT for a test drive by directing it to write an article summarizing important tax rule changes introduced by SECURE Act 2.0. The essay it produced was an epic failure.
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
Any of the variable spending strategies I analyzed will reduce sequence risk in retirement and allow for greater initial spending rates, potentially greater average spending amounts, and a generally more efficient spenddown of assets than the baseline constant inflation-adjusted spending rule.
North American developed market large-mid stocks (United States and Canada) bottomed simultaneously with other developed markets on 10/12/22, recovering over 10% since then.
If you read and pay attention to the world, you probably know the recent past pretty well. And if you’re a history buff like me, you also know something about the more distant past.
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
While the sanctions regime imposed on Russia has dented its economy, it is far less severe than those imposed on North Korea and Iran, which included penalties on third-party countries. Imposing secondary sanctions could tighten the screws on Putin, but also accelerate deglobalization.
Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms are beefing up agricultural markets expertise by hiring traders as big swings in prices have made even relatively niche corners of commodities trading lucrative during the past year.
A drawdown to fight energy inflation has left the SPR at a new low.
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
In the finance industry, the word “compliance” garners a negative connotation. Indeed, it conjures images of being paddled by a schoolteacher.
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on durable goods new orders for January. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.
As of February 28, 2023, the 10-year note was 340 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020.
"We forgot that war is history’s favourite driver of inflation." -Niall Ferguson
As a young stockbroker in the 1980s, I was very enamored with T. Boone Pickens.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for February. The latest headline purchasing managers index (PMI) was 47.7, up 0.3 from the previous month and worse than the Investing.com forecast of 48.0. This marks the fourth consecutive month in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020.
The February S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ hit a 3-month high coming in at 47.3, up 0.4 from the final January figure, and slightly worse than the Investing.com forecast of 47.8. This marks the fourth consecutive month in contraction territory, a streak we have not seen since 2020.
Balancing the needs of your clients with the needs of your advisory business is challenging, but it’s essential to maintaining growth and scale. My guests today will discuss how to navigate the challenges advisors face through phases of growth by identifying opportunities to increase value, drive growth, and boost your firm’s performance. From client segmentation to succession planning to other key issues, my guests will identify the key decisions advisors must make to build a sustainable, successful business.
AssetMark is a turnkey asset management platform for financial advisors specifically tailored to help investors achieve their life goals. It supports more than $80 billion in client assets.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, dropped to 43.6 in February from 44.3 in January, marking the sixth straight month in contraction territory. This reading comes in below the Investing.com forecast of 45.0.
U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
In just one month, emerging Asian assets have gone from a buy to sell. And all signs point to continued caution as March draws near.
This commentary reflects on the silver linings of the higher interest rate environment as well as explores the possible winners and losers under this new regime.
With this morning's release of the December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.51% decrease month-over-month (MoM), matching the Investing.com forecast, and a 4.67% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.3% and the YoY was reduced to -2.7%.
Gold bugs started 2023 with high hopes after the precious metals sector showed impressive relative strength versus paper assets in 2022.
The war has been tremendously costly, in Ukraine and beyond.
Low-volatility strategies are often cited as an anomaly offering higher returns without a corresponding increase in risk. But the so-called low-volatility factor is well explained by other factors, and new research shows it does not reduce exposure to “systemic,” broad-economic risks.
A cohort of Wall Street’s emerging-market bulls is growing wary of calling a new dawn for riskier assets, opting for a more cautious approach to developing-nation currencies.
Research from Vanguard suggests that investing in commodities is the most powerful way to hedge against unexpected inflation.
Close to 90% of the world’s central banks are at some point in the process of creating their own digital currency. Are you ready?
Many investors believe that gold is a safe long-term investment that can be used to hedge against risk. But should you include this precious metal in your retirement portfolio?
A gold IRA is one way to diversify your retirement portfolio. It can protect your savings from plummeting in the event of a stock market crash or high inflation.
In a dark future for humans on Wall Street, banks fire traders en masse as artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT take over bond and commodities markets that were once too tough to automate.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in January rose 0.71% and is up 7.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.09% and was up 1.6% year-over-year.
The S&P 500 is rising after falling the past four sessions as equites have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening.
Bond markets are pricing in additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, acknowledging the central bank’s emphatic resolve to tame inflation despite the likely trade-offs.
In downtown Nashville, chef Matt Farley is serving up trouble for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Silver is more volatile, cheaper and more tightly linked with the industrial economy. Gold is more expensive and better for diversifying your portfolio overall.
Gold investors are betting the Fed will continue to be negligent with its monetary policy.
After making more money than ever in the last few years, some of the world’s top energy traders are using the cash to expand in metals and agriculture.
Commodities
Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
Fed Hikes Rates as Bank Worries Spread Globally
As interest rates show signs of peaking, gold prices are nearing new all-time highs.
Sinology: Opportunity and Risk
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
Markets Again Under Pressure
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold Bulls Look to Push through $2,000
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Weekly Heating Oil Prices: Down 5 Cents
The latest price of home heating oil nationwide dropped to its lowest price of the year at $4.13. The current price is down 5 cents from last week and down 76 cents compared to one year ago.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Stocks Climb Ahead of Fed Meeting
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Down 9.3% from Last Week
As of March 20, the price of regular and premium gas were down 3 cents and 4 cents from the previous week, respectively. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.81 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $2.89. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.82 and is down 9.3% from last week.
Incremental Progress Emerging in the Banking Sector Fallout
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
U.S. Banking System Faces Worsening Crisis in Confidence
The national news cycle has careened from one extraordinary and alarming story to the next.
World Markets Update: March 20, 2023
Five of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 20, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 8.33%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 6.94%, and China's Shanghai moved to third with a YTD gain of 4.71%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.28% YTD.
Sustainable Investing: Opportunistically Managing Risk
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
The Fed’s Got Inflation Backwards
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
Lies, Damn Lies, and Visions of Nuclear Catastrophe
The strongest force standing in the way of nuclear energy is the antiquated, irrational fear of it.
Another Unstable Finger
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Could Bank Runs Lead to a Run on Gold & Silver?
Fears of bank runs precipitating a broader financial crisis helped spark a surge in bullion buying this week.
The Futile Efforts to Reform Social Security
The politics of the status quo creates the illusion of action, fostering the image that Social Security is a hot topic that has captured the attention of Washington.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 17, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 17, 2023 at 3.39%, the two-year note ended at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 3.60%.
Banking Sector Uncertainty Keeps Pressure on Stocks
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
The Big Four: February Real Retail Sales Down 0.8%
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.4% and up 5.4% YoY. However after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales decreased by 0.8% and were down 0.6% YoY.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: February 2023
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Bank Worries Strike Again
What our experts think about today's market action.
The Aftershock That Will Follow Silicon Valley Bank
The banking earthquake is sending shockwaves through the financial markets. The financial and economic aftershocks, soon to follow, are underappreciated and will prove worse than the earthquake.
Stocks Falling as European Banking Worries Flare Up
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
China Can Quickly Catch Up to US AI, Says Venture Veteran
China can match the US in artificial intelligence thanks to the expertise of companies from Alibaba to Baidu, joining a global tech transformation that will dwarf the mobile revolution, according to industry pioneer Kai-Fu Lee.
The 2022-2023 Regime Change
The events that began with Thursday’s tumult in financial stocks and precipitated the FDIC takeover of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were swift.
Recent Bank Failures a Potential Game-Changer for The Fed
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Consumer Price Index: February Headline at 6.0%, Down from January
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year Headline CPI came in as expected at 6.0%, down from 6.4% the previous month (n.s.a). Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) also came in as expected at 5.5%, down from 5.6% the previous month (n.s.a).
Treasuries: "Risk Free" or "Risk Unlimited"?
The high-profile collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week is a story about bad debt, just not in the way most people think.
Stocks Remain Under Pressure as Banking Worries Remain
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
Buffett On Buybacks
Warren Buffett defended stock buybacks in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter, pushing back on those railing against the practice he believes benefits all shareholders.
Bitcoin Is A Key Component Of The Great Digital Transformation
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
Bank Dominoes Falling
In September 2021, Silvergate Bank, specializing in digital currency, was performing well. In fact, the bank reported record-breaking growth in deposits and loans in 2020, thanks in part to increased demand for its services from clients in the cryptocurrency industry.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: February Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of non-farm employment. February saw a 311,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%. The Investing.com forecast was for 205,000 jobs gained.
Stocks Trying to Battle Back From a Two-Day Rout
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Stocks Chipping Away at Weekly Losses
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
The Yield Curve Screams Recession
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed could hike rates more and more often.
China’s Green Enablers Deserve a Place in Equity Funds
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
Biden to Urge 25% Billionaire Tax, Levies on Rich Investors
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
Are Cheap Burgers in Emerging Markets a Good Sign for Investors?
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
Women and Investing: What Is Your Brand?
Gundlach: We Could Have the Worst Default Cycle Ever
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
January Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2B
The U.S. international trade in goods and services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$68.2B was better than the -68.9B Investing.com forecast, however it is the largest gap we have seen in the last 3 months.
Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1 February 2023
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
Tesla, GM Follow Own Shareholders With Push Into Lithium Miners
As automakers seek stakes in lithium miners to lock in supplies for electric-vehicle batteries, they’re following a path already forged by their shareholders.
Europe: Sticky Inflation Favors Income
European stocks have outperformed this year as China’s economy restarts and the energy shock proved less severe than expected.
US Jobs Report and Powell Testimony Take Center Stage
US job growth probably moderated last month after a blistering January pace, while the unemployment rate likely held at a 53-year low, illustrating a labor market that’s proved mostly impervious to the Federal Reserve’s massive interest-rate hikes.
A Financial Planner Takes ChatGPT for a Test Drive
I took ChatGPT for a test drive by directing it to write an article summarizing important tax rule changes introduced by SECURE Act 2.0. The essay it produced was an epic failure.
Four Key Questions to Ask Before Making a Hedge Fund Investment
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
A Comparison of Variable Spending Strategies
Any of the variable spending strategies I analyzed will reduce sequence risk in retirement and allow for greater initial spending rates, potentially greater average spending amounts, and a generally more efficient spenddown of assets than the baseline constant inflation-adjusted spending rule.
North America Sector Performance Since the October Low
North American developed market large-mid stocks (United States and Canada) bottomed simultaneously with other developed markets on 10/12/22, recovering over 10% since then.
How It Started/How It's Going
If you read and pay attention to the world, you probably know the recent past pretty well. And if you’re a history buff like me, you also know something about the more distant past.
Airline Stocks Are Soaring Over The Negative Headlines, Lifted By Positive Earnings
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
Why the Russia Sanctions Are Missing the Mark
While the sanctions regime imposed on Russia has dented its economy, it is far less severe than those imposed on North Korea and Iran, which included penalties on third-party countries. Imposing secondary sanctions could tighten the screws on Putin, but also accelerate deglobalization.
Crop Traders in High Demand at Hedge Funds Looking to Cash In on Commodities
Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms are beefing up agricultural markets expertise by hiring traders as big swings in prices have made even relatively niche corners of commodities trading lucrative during the past year.
Finding the Will to Refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
A drawdown to fight energy inflation has left the SPR at a new low.
Navigating A Turbulent Environment: EM IG To The Rescue
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
Compliance Is Not the Enemy
In the finance industry, the word “compliance” garners a negative connotation. Indeed, it conjures images of being paddled by a schoolteacher.
Fed's Path to Cooling Inflation Continues to Loom Large
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
The "Real" Goods on the January Durable Goods Data
The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on durable goods new orders for January. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of February 28, 2023, the 10-year note was 340 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020.
One Year On
"We forgot that war is history’s favourite driver of inflation." -Niall Ferguson
Drilling for Oil on the NYSE
As a young stockbroker in the 1980s, I was very enamored with T. Boone Pickens.
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for Fourth Straight Month
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for February. The latest headline purchasing managers index (PMI) was 47.7, up 0.3 from the previous month and worse than the Investing.com forecast of 48.0. This marks the fourth consecutive month in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020.
February S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Softest Decline in 3 Months
The February S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ hit a 3-month high coming in at 47.3, up 0.4 from the final January figure, and slightly worse than the Investing.com forecast of 47.8. This marks the fourth consecutive month in contraction territory, a streak we have not seen since 2020.
How to Position Your Practice for Growth in 2023
Balancing the needs of your clients with the needs of your advisory business is challenging, but it’s essential to maintaining growth and scale. My guests today will discuss how to navigate the challenges advisors face through phases of growth by identifying opportunities to increase value, drive growth, and boost your firm’s performance. From client segmentation to succession planning to other key issues, my guests will identify the key decisions advisors must make to build a sustainable, successful business.
AssetMark is a turnkey asset management platform for financial advisors specifically tailored to help investors achieve their life goals. It supports more than $80 billion in client assets.
How Russia’s War Has Shifted the Geopolitical Landscape
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Chicago PMI Down Again in February, Worse Than Forecast
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, dropped to 43.6 in February from 44.3 in January, marking the sixth straight month in contraction territory. This reading comes in below the Investing.com forecast of 45.0.
Stocks Muted as Choppiness Remains
U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
Frightful February Ends Call to Buy Everything in Emerging Asia
In just one month, emerging Asian assets have gone from a buy to sell. And all signs point to continued caution as March draws near.
Silver Linings - Our February 2023 market Commentary
This commentary reflects on the silver linings of the higher interest rate environment as well as explores the possible winners and losers under this new regime.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continued to Decline in December
With this morning's release of the December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.51% decrease month-over-month (MoM), matching the Investing.com forecast, and a 4.67% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.3% and the YoY was reduced to -2.7%.
Better Early Than Late
Gold bugs started 2023 with high hopes after the precious metals sector showed impressive relative strength versus paper assets in 2022.
One Year of War in Ukraine
The war has been tremendously costly, in Ukraine and beyond.
Beware of Low-Volatility Portfolios
Low-volatility strategies are often cited as an anomaly offering higher returns without a corresponding increase in risk. But the so-called low-volatility factor is well explained by other factors, and new research shows it does not reduce exposure to “systemic,” broad-economic risks.
Emerging Markets Will Have to Weather Another Dollar Hurrah
A cohort of Wall Street’s emerging-market bulls is growing wary of calling a new dawn for riskier assets, opting for a more cautious approach to developing-nation currencies.
Vanguard’s Research on Commodities as an Inflation Hedge
Research from Vanguard suggests that investing in commodities is the most powerful way to hedge against unexpected inflation.
Your CBDC Survival Guide
Close to 90% of the world’s central banks are at some point in the process of creating their own digital currency. Are you ready?
Should You Invest in Gold for Retirement?
Many investors believe that gold is a safe long-term investment that can be used to hedge against risk. But should you include this precious metal in your retirement portfolio?
What Is a Gold IRA?
A gold IRA is one way to diversify your retirement portfolio. It can protect your savings from plummeting in the event of a stock market crash or high inflation.
Wall Street's ChatGPT Nightmare Is Over Before It Starts as Banks Crack Down
In a dark future for humans on Wall Street, banks fire traders en masse as artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT take over bond and commodities markets that were once too tough to automate.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in January
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in January rose 0.71% and is up 7.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.09% and was up 1.6% year-over-year.
Stocks Higher After String of Losses
The S&P 500 is rising after falling the past four sessions as equites have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening.
Markets Are Finally Listening to Fed’s ‘Ongoing Increases’ Message
Bond markets are pricing in additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, acknowledging the central bank’s emphatic resolve to tame inflation despite the likely trade-offs.
Jerome Powell’s Worst Fear Could Come True in Southern Job Market
In downtown Nashville, chef Matt Farley is serving up trouble for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Gold versus Silver Investments: Which is Better?
Silver is more volatile, cheaper and more tightly linked with the industrial economy. Gold is more expensive and better for diversifying your portfolio overall.
Gold Investors are Betting on the Fed's Incompetence
Gold investors are betting the Fed will continue to be negligent with its monetary policy.
Energy Traders, Flush With Cash, Are Moving Into Crops and Metals
After making more money than ever in the last few years, some of the world’s top energy traders are using the cash to expand in metals and agriculture.