While the economy faces risks of a slowdown, a strong labor market has supported consumer spending. Our presenters will evaluate risks to the economic expansion and impact of uncertain monetary policy.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
This morning's release of the February new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 640K, up 1.1% month-over-month from a revised 633K in January. This is below the Investing.com forecast of 650K however it is the highest amount of monthly sales in the last 6 months. and above the Investing.com forecast of 620K. The median home price is now at $438,200, up $11.7K from January on a nominal basis.
Read our latest insight where Dan Suzuki explains what investors need to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
We have been reminding everyone that we believe we are unwinding a financial euphoria episode that Charlie Munger called the biggest of his career, “because of the totality of it.”
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
This morning's release of the February existing home sales showed that sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million units from the previous month's 4.00 million, ending the 12-month streak of monthly declines. The latest number represents a 14.5% month-over-month increase, its largest since July 2020 and well above the Investing.com forecast of 5%. With that being said, existing home sales are down 22.6% compared to one year ago.
The national news cycle has careened from one extraordinary and alarming story to the next.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through February. The latest debt level is at 624.38 billion, down 2.6% month-over-month (MoM) and down 25.3% year-over-year (YoY). However after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 3.2% MoM and down 29.5% YoY.
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
New research confirms the valuable role that short sellers play in correcting the valuations of overpriced stocks.
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Fears of bank runs precipitating a broader financial crisis helped spark a surge in bullion buying this week.
The politics of the status quo creates the illusion of action, fostering the image that Social Security is a hot topic that has captured the attention of Washington.
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their February findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and oermits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.
The key to if — or when — the US economy falls into recession will depend on how the latest turmoil in the banking sector spills over to Main Street.
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
In a dovish move, the central bank raises rates by half a point.
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
February's ZHVI came in at $327,514, practically unchanged from January and up 6.76% from February 2022. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.71% month-over-month and -1.16% year-over-year.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.524M crushed the Investing.com forecast of 1.340M. Building permits climbed 13.82% from January's revised figure of 1.339M, the largest monthly gain since July 2020.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.450M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.310M and is a 9.8% increase from the previous month's revised figure of 1.321M. Housing starts are down 18.4% compared to this time last year.
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
The banking earthquake is sending shockwaves through the financial markets. The financial and economic aftershocks, soon to follow, are underappreciated and will prove worse than the earthquake.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (40) at 44, up 2 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last six months.
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
China can match the US in artificial intelligence thanks to the expertise of companies from Alibaba to Baidu, joining a global tech transformation that will dwarf the mobile revolution, according to industry pioneer Kai-Fu Lee.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned Silicon Valley Bank’s failure shows cracks widening in global finance, joining other US billionaires raising the alarm on fallout from the lender’s collapse.
The events that began with Thursday’s tumult in financial stocks and precipitated the FDIC takeover of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were swift.
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Why did Silicon Valley Bank fail?
The high-profile collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week is a story about bad debt, just not in the way most people think.
Let’s explore the barriers that have kept alts in an ivory tower, why they’re becoming mainstream, and how advisors and their clients can incorporate alts into their portfolios.
Silicon Valley Bank became the biggest US lender to fail in more than a decade, creating fears of contagion in tech and finance sectors in the US and around the world.
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Warren Buffett defended stock buybacks in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter, pushing back on those railing against the practice he believes benefits all shareholders.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
Greg Becker sat in a red armchair at an invite-only conference in Los Angeles last week, legs crossed, one hand cutting through air.
In September 2021, Silvergate Bank, specializing in digital currency, was performing well. In fact, the bank reported record-breaking growth in deposits and loans in 2020, thanks in part to increased demand for its services from clients in the cryptocurrency industry.
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Gen Zers, according to a recent Magnify Money survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy.
This is a couple months past its release, but the latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth for households and nonprofit organizations that is 149% above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q4 2022 net worth is down up 2.0% from the previous quarter and down 2.7% year-over-year.
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed could hike rates more and more often.
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
Given the topsy-turvy nature of the market thus far in 2023, it remains crucial for investors to know what they are buying—especially as it relates to growth, value, and quality.
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
Read our latest insight to learn why we believe this year's market rally is just speculation and how we are positioning our portfolios for a change in leadership.
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
As automakers seek stakes in lithium miners to lock in supplies for electric-vehicle batteries, they’re following a path already forged by their shareholders.
European stocks have outperformed this year as China’s economy restarts and the energy shock proved less severe than expected.
You know you have a non-ideal client when…
The landscape for M&A and recruitment in the advisory profession will continue to be strong.
The crypto world’s eyes will once again turn to Washington on Tuesday as oral arguments begin in Grayscale Investments’s lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The case is being argued in the D.C. Court of Appeals.
I took ChatGPT for a test drive by directing it to write an article summarizing important tax rule changes introduced by SECURE Act 2.0. The essay it produced was an epic failure.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
North American developed market large-mid stocks (United States and Canada) bottomed simultaneously with other developed markets on 10/12/22, recovering over 10% since then.
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms are beefing up agricultural markets expertise by hiring traders as big swings in prices have made even relatively niche corners of commodities trading lucrative during the past year.
The Federal Reserve said that further interest-rate hikes would be required to restore price stability.
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of February 28, 2023 it was at 3.92%.
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on durable goods new orders for January. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.
Quick take: Based on the February S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 31.6 is 112% above its arithmetic mean, 130% above its geometric mean, and is at the 96th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons.
Balancing the needs of your clients with the needs of your advisory business is challenging, but it’s essential to maintaining growth and scale. My guests today will discuss how to navigate the challenges advisors face through phases of growth by identifying opportunities to increase value, drive growth, and boost your firm’s performance. From client segmentation to succession planning to other key issues, my guests will identify the key decisions advisors must make to build a sustainable, successful business.
AssetMark is a turnkey asset management platform for financial advisors specifically tailored to help investors achieve their life goals. It supports more than $80 billion in client assets.
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
Alternative Investments
The 2023 Real Estate Market Outlook
While the economy faces risks of a slowdown, a strong labor market has supported consumer spending. Our presenters will evaluate risks to the economic expansion and impact of uncertain monetary policy.
Growth in Real Money Supply is What is Important for Taming Inflation, and for the Fed
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Echoes Of '08? Don't Bank On It
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
The Crucial Questions
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Markets Again Under Pressure
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold Bulls Look to Push through $2,000
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
New Home Sales Up for Third Straight Month
This morning's release of the February new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 640K, up 1.1% month-over-month from a revised 633K in January. This is below the Investing.com forecast of 650K however it is the highest amount of monthly sales in the last 6 months. and above the Investing.com forecast of 620K. The median home price is now at $438,200, up $11.7K from January on a nominal basis.
Some Thoughts on Banks
Read our latest insight where Dan Suzuki explains what investors need to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
Alternative Investments Outlook Post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Stocks Climb Ahead of Fed Meeting
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
GLP-Backed Fund to Raise $100 Million for Asian Fintech Deals
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
Stocks Are Shrugging Off Bank Woes With Help From Hedge Funds
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Funding Unprofitable Growth
We have been reminding everyone that we believe we are unwinding a financial euphoria episode that Charlie Munger called the biggest of his career, “because of the totality of it.”
Banking, Inflation, and the Fed: Where Do We Go From Here?
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
Existing-Home Sales Surge in February, Ending 12-Month Streak of Declines
This morning's release of the February existing home sales showed that sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million units from the previous month's 4.00 million, ending the 12-month streak of monthly declines. The latest number represents a 14.5% month-over-month increase, its largest since July 2020 and well above the Investing.com forecast of 5%. With that being said, existing home sales are down 22.6% compared to one year ago.
U.S. Banking System Faces Worsening Crisis in Confidence
The national news cycle has careened from one extraordinary and alarming story to the next.
Margin Debt Down 2.6% in February
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through February. The latest debt level is at 624.38 billion, down 2.6% month-over-month (MoM) and down 25.3% year-over-year (YoY). However after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 3.2% MoM and down 29.5% YoY.
A Difficult Job Becomes Even More Difficult
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Bank Crisis Survivors Remember How Fast the Dominoes Can Fall
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.
Two Sides of Healthcare, One Strong Investment Case
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
Sustainable Investing: Opportunistically Managing Risk
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
The Fed’s Got Inflation Backwards
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
New Evidence that Short Sellers Correct Overpriced Stocks
New research confirms the valuable role that short sellers play in correcting the valuations of overpriced stocks.
Another Unstable Finger
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Could Bank Runs Lead to a Run on Gold & Silver?
Fears of bank runs precipitating a broader financial crisis helped spark a surge in bullion buying this week.
The Futile Efforts to Reform Social Security
The politics of the status quo creates the illusion of action, fostering the image that Social Security is a hot topic that has captured the attention of Washington.
The Professor's Portfolio
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
A Long-Term Look: Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts
Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their February findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and oermits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.
Where to Look for Signs Financial Turmoil Is Impacting the US Economy
The key to if — or when — the US economy falls into recession will depend on how the latest turmoil in the banking sector spills over to Main Street.
Banking Sector Uncertainty Keeps Pressure on Stocks
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
The ECB Hikes Rates Amid Financial Market Volatility
In a dovish move, the central bank raises rates by half a point.
European Banking Sector—Taking Stock After Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
Zillow Home Value Index: February Update
February's ZHVI came in at $327,514, practically unchanged from January and up 6.76% from February 2022. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.71% month-over-month and -1.16% year-over-year.
Building Permits Climb 13.8% in February
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.524M crushed the Investing.com forecast of 1.340M. Building permits climbed 13.82% from January's revised figure of 1.339M, the largest monthly gain since July 2020.
Housing Starts Jump 9.8% in February
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.450M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.310M and is a 9.8% increase from the previous month's revised figure of 1.321M. Housing starts are down 18.4% compared to this time last year.
Banks and the Butterfly Effect—the Global Ramifications
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
The Aftershock That Will Follow Silicon Valley Bank
The banking earthquake is sending shockwaves through the financial markets. The financial and economic aftershocks, soon to follow, are underappreciated and will prove worse than the earthquake.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Confidence Edges Higher but Future Outlook Uncertain
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (40) at 44, up 2 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last six months.
Stocks Falling as European Banking Worries Flare Up
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
Bank Failures and the Fed
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
China Can Quickly Catch Up to US AI, Says Venture Veteran
China can match the US in artificial intelligence thanks to the expertise of companies from Alibaba to Baidu, joining a global tech transformation that will dwarf the mobile revolution, according to industry pioneer Kai-Fu Lee.
Ray Dalio Warns SVB’s Collapse Shows Cracks Widening in Global Finance
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned Silicon Valley Bank’s failure shows cracks widening in global finance, joining other US billionaires raising the alarm on fallout from the lender’s collapse.
The 2022-2023 Regime Change
The events that began with Thursday’s tumult in financial stocks and precipitated the FDIC takeover of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were swift.
Recent Bank Failures a Potential Game-Changer for The Fed
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Making Sense of SVB, a Unique Bank with a Classic Problem
Why did Silicon Valley Bank fail?
Treasuries: "Risk Free" or "Risk Unlimited"?
The high-profile collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week is a story about bad debt, just not in the way most people think.
Alts Investing is Mainstream: The Right Custodian Can Help
Let’s explore the barriers that have kept alts in an ivory tower, why they’re becoming mainstream, and how advisors and their clients can incorporate alts into their portfolios.
Here’s How SVB’s Collapse Is Reverberating Around the World
Silicon Valley Bank became the biggest US lender to fail in more than a decade, creating fears of contagion in tech and finance sectors in the US and around the world.
Stocks Remain Under Pressure as Banking Worries Remain
U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.
Silicon Valley Bank Failure Ripples Through the Market
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Monetary Cycle Versus Fiscal Cycle: What is the Difference?
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Buffett On Buybacks
Warren Buffett defended stock buybacks in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter, pushing back on those railing against the practice he believes benefits all shareholders.
Thousand-Word Equivalents
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.
Bitcoin Is A Key Component Of The Great Digital Transformation
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
SVB’s 44-Hour Collapse Was Rooted in Treasury Bets During Pandemic
Greg Becker sat in a red armchair at an invite-only conference in Los Angeles last week, legs crossed, one hand cutting through air.
Bank Dominoes Falling
In September 2021, Silvergate Bank, specializing in digital currency, was performing well. In fact, the bank reported record-breaking growth in deposits and loans in 2020, thanks in part to increased demand for its services from clients in the cryptocurrency industry.
Stocks Trying to Battle Back From a Two-Day Rout
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Gen Zers Are Overly Optimistic About Being Wealthy
Gen Zers, according to a recent Magnify Money survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy.
Q4 2022 Household Net Worth: The "Real" Story
This is a couple months past its release, but the latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth for households and nonprofit organizations that is 149% above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q4 2022 net worth is down up 2.0% from the previous quarter and down 2.7% year-over-year.
Stocks Chipping Away at Weekly Losses
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
The Yield Curve Screams Recession
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed could hike rates more and more often.
China’s Green Enablers Deserve a Place in Equity Funds
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
Biden to Urge 25% Billionaire Tax, Levies on Rich Investors
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
Are Cheap Burgers in Emerging Markets a Good Sign for Investors?
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
Caveat Emptor: Important Market Shifts Underway
Given the topsy-turvy nature of the market thus far in 2023, it remains crucial for investors to know what they are buying—especially as it relates to growth, value, and quality.
Gundlach: We Could Have the Worst Default Cycle Ever
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
Don’t Speculate on Speculation
Read our latest insight to learn why we believe this year's market rally is just speculation and how we are positioning our portfolios for a change in leadership.
Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1 February 2023
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
Tesla, GM Follow Own Shareholders With Push Into Lithium Miners
As automakers seek stakes in lithium miners to lock in supplies for electric-vehicle batteries, they’re following a path already forged by their shareholders.
Europe: Sticky Inflation Favors Income
European stocks have outperformed this year as China’s economy restarts and the energy shock proved less severe than expected.
Four Signs You’re Talking to the Wrong Prospects
You know you have a non-ideal client when…
A Positive Outlook for Recruitment and M&A
The landscape for M&A and recruitment in the advisory profession will continue to be strong.
What to Watch as Grayscale and SEC Face Off Over ETF Conversion
The crypto world’s eyes will once again turn to Washington on Tuesday as oral arguments begin in Grayscale Investments’s lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The case is being argued in the D.C. Court of Appeals.
A Financial Planner Takes ChatGPT for a Test Drive
I took ChatGPT for a test drive by directing it to write an article summarizing important tax rule changes introduced by SECURE Act 2.0. The essay it produced was an epic failure.
February 2023: A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
Four Key Questions to Ask Before Making a Hedge Fund Investment
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
North America Sector Performance Since the October Low
North American developed market large-mid stocks (United States and Canada) bottomed simultaneously with other developed markets on 10/12/22, recovering over 10% since then.
Airline Stocks Are Soaring Over The Negative Headlines, Lifted By Positive Earnings
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
Crop Traders in High Demand at Hedge Funds Looking to Cash In on Commodities
Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms are beefing up agricultural markets expertise by hiring traders as big swings in prices have made even relatively niche corners of commodities trading lucrative during the past year.
Fed Says More Rate Hikes Are Needed to Curb Inflation
The Federal Reserve said that further interest-rate hikes would be required to restore price stability.
Navigating A Turbulent Environment: EM IG To The Rescue
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
February 2023: Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of February 28, 2023 it was at 3.92%.
Fed's Path to Cooling Inflation Continues to Loom Large
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
The "Real" Goods on the January Durable Goods Data
The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on durable goods new orders for January. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.
Crestmont Market Valuation Update: February 2023
Quick take: Based on the February S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 31.6 is 112% above its arithmetic mean, 130% above its geometric mean, and is at the 96th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
International Equities: Poised for Recovery
Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons.
How to Position Your Practice for Growth in 2023
Balancing the needs of your clients with the needs of your advisory business is challenging, but it’s essential to maintaining growth and scale. My guests today will discuss how to navigate the challenges advisors face through phases of growth by identifying opportunities to increase value, drive growth, and boost your firm’s performance. From client segmentation to succession planning to other key issues, my guests will identify the key decisions advisors must make to build a sustainable, successful business.
AssetMark is a turnkey asset management platform for financial advisors specifically tailored to help investors achieve their life goals. It supports more than $80 billion in client assets.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes a Volatile February Down 2.61%
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.