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Pactive® Investing
Historical studies show individual investors are very poor asset allocators, and are undoubtedly no better at selecting ETFs. At RBA, our Pactive® Management portfolios combine the benefits of low-fee, transparent and liquid passive investments with RBA’s asset allocation expertise.
What's in Your ETF Portfolio?
ETFs continue to play a highly disruptive role in money management. RBA has embraced this trend by employing what we refer to as Pactive™ Management, which is the active allocation, whether strategic or tactical, of passive investment instruments such as ETFs, stock baskets, and index funds. These Pactive™ portfolios have quickly become the fastest growing part of our business.
“New normal”: Not new. Just normal.
While investors continue to believe that equities remain in a ‘low return environment’, our research indicates current equity returns are historically quite normal. Instead, we argue that investors’ poor asset allocation has given the impression that portfolio returns have been lower than normal.
A Short Comment on Brexit
Judging by today’s volatility, most investors (including us) were incorrect that the UK would vote to stay in the EU. We find it very confusing why the UK voted against its own economic interests given there were other methods to potentially alleviate the EU’s stifling bureaucracy and governance. However, we’ve always said it never matters what should be. The only thing that matters is what happens, and the UK has voted to leave the EU.
Location, Location, Location
When the global economy was binging on credit, it was fine to invest in marginal locations’ equity markets. However, as the global economy slowed, those fringe markets have disappointed, and “location, location, location” has proved as important to equity performance as it is in real estate.
2016 – Mute the TV
With 2016 right around the corner, investors should remember that it rarely helps portfolio performance to listen to the 24-hour news cycle and Presidential candidates’ rhetoric. We’d rather invest for our clients based on a rigorous analysis of data, which currently suggests the US economy is in considerably better shape than recent campaigning suggests. For 2016, it’s time to mute the TV and focus on fundamentals, not noise.
Taking Grounders In Spring Training
If there’s one thing that all of ‘the greats’ throughout history have in common, it’s a mastery of the fundamentals. Grammy award winning singers warm their voices up before every performance and Hall Of Fame baseball players take grounders every spring training. Unfortunately, investors continue to focus on noise instead of the basics of investing.
Uncertainty = Opportunity®
While market volatility is currently making front-page headlines in the media, we argue that investors must look past the noise and objectively focus on the fundamentals. Before you decide on a drastic asset allocation shift, learn what opportunities we see in these uncertain markets.
Global Investing is Changing
by Richard Bernstein of Eaton Vance,
International investing was easy for U.S.-based investors for many years because the U.S. dollar was either declining in value or was stable. U.S. dollar-based investors’ non-US equity and fixed-income returns were generally enhanced by the falling dollar so that U.S. investors actually tended to outperform the local currency benchmarks. Of course, investment managers took credit for the resulting “alpha” despite that out performance was more likely attributable to currency than to asset selection.
The Dollar Isn't the Peso Anymore (Part II)
by Richard Bernstein of Eaton Vance,
In May 2013, Richard wrote a report titled “The Dollar isn’t the Peso anymore.” He rebutted the argument that the U.S. dollar (USD) was weak. The data showed that the USD had actually troughed in the spring of 2008. For seven years now, the USD has been gaining strength and is today a standout among the world’s currencies.
The Dollar isn’t the Peso anymore (Part II)
The US dollar rally is in its seventh year and we expect this trend to continue. Many observers, including the Fed, continue to worry about inflation. However, we think a strong USD and disinflation/deflation seem more likely than inflation so long as global overcapacity forces nations to fight for market share and depreciate their currencies.
Bonds or Jeter?
In baseball, batters choose to either swing for the fences in hopes of a home run or go for more consistent base hits. These same principles are highly relevant to the current market environment and long-term investment success. So, see if you really want home run hitters in your portfolio?
2015 Year Ahead: Continuing to Deflate the Global Credit Bubble
Stock market leadership virtually always changes when volatility significantly spikes, and the 2008 bear market was no exception. Credit-related asset classes led the markets for the decade prior to 2008 as the global credit bubble inflated. Since 2008?s bear market, however, leadership has significantly changed and credit-related asset classes have generally underperformed plain, old-fashioned stocks.
Tired of Being Scared Yet?
Bull markets are based on climbing the proverbial wall of worry, and this cycle has been no different. We have consistently argued over the past five years that the current bull market could be one of the biggest of our careers. Both investors and corporations continue to act conservatively because of the uncertainty caused by a litany of issues. Uncertainty is typically the engine of bull markets.
Special Report: Volatility Update
Volatility can destroy the best of financial plans. Simply doing nothing can be a fine strategy in the face of short-term volatility, but the tension associated with market downdrafts makes both institutional and individual investors feel that doing nothing is not an alternative. However, decisions made under duress are typically decisions that should not be made.
Is Smart Beta Smart Enough?
As smart as smart beta might be, it is not smart enough to answer the most important question in beta management. The key to successful beta management, regardless of whether the beta is smart or dumb, depends primarily on the choice and timing of beta. A strategy that focuses on smart beta without consideration for full beta management seems very likely to underperform.
Stocks vs. High Yield Munis
The track record of the so-called "Fed Model" is dubious at best. The relationship compares the S&P 500's earnings yield to the yield of the 10-year Treasury note, and there are many other indicators that have a better track record than does the Fed Model when attempting to predict twelve-month forward returns. Despite that caveat, we nonetheless thought it interesting to examine the yield relationships between stocks and a broader array of fixed-income categories. Among those categories, high yield municipal bonds can be the only fixed-income that is attractive relative to stock
Toward the Sounds of Chaos
Stock market volatility is always a scary thing. Investors nearing retirement fear their nest eggs will evaporate. Younger investors saving for a home or a childs college education fear their families futures might be in doubt. However, history suggests that allowing volatility to overrule a good investment plan tends to lead to poor performance. Its not volatility itself that generally leads to poor longer-term performance, but rather it appears to be investors emotional reactions to volatility that ultimately lead to poor performance.
Lack of Corporate Hubris Means Elongated Cycle
When we started Richard Bernstein Advisors roughly five years ago, we thought the US was entering one of the biggest bull markets of our careers. Today, we are likely in the midst of this long bull market. Despite the general consensus that a bear market is on the horizon and investors ongoing interest in protecting potential downside risk, we do not think the Fed, investors, or corporations are yet sowing the seeds for the next recession.
EM Debt Seems Risky
At RBA, we search for gaps between perception and reality, and this seems to be the case for emerging market debt. Investors have been lured to these securities by their higher yields, yet the underlying economic and currency fundamentals are deteriorating without commensurate widening of spreads.
Worried about the Downside?
There have been numerous academic studies that suggest investors reactions to market risk are not symmetric. Investors consistently react more negatively to losses than positively to gains. At RBA, we incorporate this asymmetry in our sentiment work. Data clearly show that no group of investors is currently willing to take excessive US equity risk. Pension funds, endowments, foundations, hedge funds, individuals, Wall Street strategists, and even corporations themselves remain more fearful of downside risk than they are willing to accentuate upside potential.
A Classic Barometer
Investors seem a bit too eager to tout emerging market equities. Much as they did with technology stocks during the early-2000s, investors today are looking for the best re-entry point. Data clearly do not support anymore the notion that emerging markets are a superior growth story, yet investors seem to be ignoring the classic warnings signs for fear of missing out. One such classic warning sign is the slope of the yield curve. Historically, steeper yield curves have been reliable forecasters of stronger overall nominal economic growth and stronger profits growth.
The Importance of Beta Management
Morningstar recently released ?Mind the Gap-2014? which demonstrated that investors are generally very poor beta managers. The Morningstar data showed that investors? performance lagged that of their funds by about 250 basis points per year for the past ten years because of poor beta management, i.e., investors tend to be very poor allocators of capital.
American Industrial Renaissance Revisited
We first wrote about The "American Industrial Renaissance" in 2012, and it remains one of our favorite investment themes. We continue to implement this theme through small US-centric industrial companies and small financial institutions that lend to public and private industrial firms. It remains unlikely that the United States will be the manufacturing powerhouse that it was during the 1950s and 1960s, but many factors are suggesting that the US industrial sector will continue to gain market share.
Market Share: The Next Secular Investment Theme
It is well known that corporate profit margins are at record highs. US margings, developed market margings, and even emerging market margins are generally either at or close to record highs. A myopic focus on profit margins may miss an important investment consideration. Whereas most investors remain fearful of margin compression, we prefer to search for an investment theme that could emerge if margins do indeed compress. Accordingly, our investment focus has shifted toward themes based on companies who might gain market share.
Equity Bubble? No.
The US stock market performed very well during 2013. The S&P 500s total return of nearly 33% far outpaced the returns of most asset classes. A growing contingent of market observers is fearful that the US equity market is in some sort of a bubble. We disagree completely with this notion. A strong market rally that many investors have missed is hardly sufficient grounds for a financial bubble.
Like a Shakespearean Script
Shakespearean plays follow a pattern. The underlying plots and storylines change from play to play, but the five-act construction is a common overlap. Market cycles tend to follow a similar pattern cycle after cycle. Like the different plots in various Shakespearean plays, the catalysts that begin and end each cycle, and the events during the cycle are always different. However, market cycles seem to follow a script and, so far, this cycle seems to be following the script almost perfectly.
Results 51–100
of 128 found.
