"We forgot that war is history’s favourite driver of inflation." -Niall Ferguson
I chose the topic for this month’s Absolute Return Letter during the Christmas break.
2022 wasn’t the easiest of years to handle for investors.
Earlier this year, we added “Globalisation 2.0” to our list of megatrends – trends that are virtually set in stone and so all-encompassing that they will have a profound effect on financial markets in the years to come.
In August 1979, President Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Chaiman of the Federal Reserve.
“If the Fed loses its independence, the age of magic money could end in catastrophe”.
We have a long and proud history of investing thematically and believe you can remove a great deal of volatility in your portfolio, if you do so.
"Without Italy, there is no Europe, but outside of Europe, there is even less Italy." -Mario Draghi
Sri Lanka is in turmoil.
It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing.
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
Is gold the answer?
Welcome to the new, slimmer format of the Absolute Return Letter.
This month’s Absolute Return Letter deals with a hyper-sensitive topic.
Why commodity markets have done so exceptionally well
How to structure your portfolio when interest rates are rising.
You know society is in trouble when the Prime Minister of your country stands up and says something along the lines of “of course we can afford to take on more debt – you are old-fashioned if you think otherwise”.
There are three key drivers of financial markets - behavioural patterns, cyclical trends and structural trends. Because human attention spans are getting shorter and shorter, behavioural patterns affect financial markets more and more. That is a problem but also an opportunity set for the astute investor who is prepared to think outside-the-box.
Oil prices have been remarkably strong more recently, defying our (very) long-term prediction that fossil fuel prices will go to $0. In this month's Absolute Return Letter, we take a look at the reasons behind the recent strength and where oil prices are likely to go next.
Low-cost, high-grade coal, oil and natural gas - the backbone of the Industrial Revolution - will be a distant memory by 2050.