Markets are vulnerable to “significant declines” should risk appetites falter, the Federal Reserve has warned. At the moment, there are very few signs of that happening.

Some day, investors will be overwhelmed by all the fresh stock coursing into the U.S. equity market, and maybe even regret bidding up buzzy businesses that haven’t earned any money. But that day has not yet come.

It’s a fool’s errand trying to find an election signal in a stock market roiled by a global pandemic, but investors will take any edge they can get. One such indicator is flashing a warning for Donald Trump’s chances on Nov. 3.