Weaker economic trends will likely form heading into 2023 as the Fed battles inflation, but a (hopefully) mild recession may help set stocks up for a better second half of the year.
Much attention has been paid to the elevated risk (and announcement) of a recession, but investors should instead focus on signals coming from leading economic indicators.
The August jobs report delivered something for both economic bulls and bears, but what matters more in the near term is the Fed's focus on seeing a continued easing in labor demand.
Second-quarter earnings growth will mark an expected deceleration in profits, but focus will likely continue to shift to the pace at which outlooks are downgraded.
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.
It was quite a month.
Recession chatter has picked up increasingly for numerous reasons, not least being the spike in oil prices, slowdown in economic growth estimates, and the Fed's transition from accommodative to tighter monetary policy.
There is no shortage of headwinds facing both the market and the economy: the tragic Russian invasion of Ukraine and attendant commodity/energy crisis; the Federal Reserve's transition from accommodative to tighter monetary policy; and increased chatter of a recession on the horizon; among others.
The war between Russia and Ukraine—and subsequent economic and financial ripple effects—has exacerbated stress in global markets and ushered in an acute risk-off environment.
“Jobs day” last Friday was a bit of a dud.
Bear with us as (no pun intended) you read this longer-than-usual outlook!
With less than two months left in what has been an extraordinary (and mystifying) year on multiple fronts, stocks have maintained a largely uninterrupted trek higher (at the index level) in the face of myriad headwinds...
The speculative exuberance around special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) seems to be over, but investors still have questions about them.
Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs)—also known as blank-check companies—have gained immense popularity among investors since the beginning of 2020, despite being around for decades.
In what shaped up to be a very impressive first half of the year for both the economy and stock market, stellar earnings growth has been a key ingredient.
As Shakespeare might put it, “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” is perhaps an apt way to describe the character of the market so far this year.