This morning's seasonally adjusted 219K new claims, up 29k from the previous week's revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 203K.
Here's the latest on the largest cryptocurrencies by market share.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the September Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 56.7 percent and is down 0.2 from 56.9 last month. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 56 percent.
The September US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by S&P Global came in at 49.3 percent, up from the final August estimate of 43.7 and in contraction territory.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -67.4B was better than the -67.70B Investing.com forecast.
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull?
The yield on the 10-year note ended October 4, 2022, at 3.62%, the 2-year note ended at 4.10%, and the 30-year at 3.70%.
The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 24% from that peak.
As of October 3, the price of Regular and Premium were up 7 and 12 cents, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.31 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $3.03. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 83.63 and is up 9% from last week.
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through August, is now available.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through October 3, 2022. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a YTD loss of 2.51%. London's FTSE 100 is in second with a loss of 6.44% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 8.95%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 27% YTD.
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for August, released recently, shows that core inflation is above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 4.91%. The August Core Consumer Price Index release is currently higher, at 6.32%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the September 30, 2022 close.
Quick take: Based on the September S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 116% above its arithmetic mean and at the 97th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for September. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.9, down 1.9 from the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 52.2.
The September S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 52.0, up 0.5 from the final August figure. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed September with a monthly loss of 9.34% after a loss of 4.24% in August. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, all five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — up from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.
The September Final Report came in at 58.6, up 0.4 (0.7%) from the July Final. Investing.com had forecast 59.5. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 31.5 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 30.7 percent below the geometric mean.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for August was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.29% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 6.25% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 4.91%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate.
With the release of this morning's report on August's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.33% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.05% when we adjust for inflation. This is generally a decrease from last month's 0.31% nominal and 0.42% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 1.19% nominal and -4.76% real.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in August rose 0.35% and is up 6.8% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.07%. The real number is up 0.6% year-over-year.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for September is -5.5, up from the previous month.
The Third Estimate for Q2 GDP came in at -0.6% (-0.58% to two decimals), down from -1.6% (1.57% to two decimals) in Q1 2022. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.80% to two decimal points.
The Third Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -0.6% (-0.58% to two decimal places), an increase from -1.6% (-1.57% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of -0.6%.
We've updated this series to include the August release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $46,918, down 8.8% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
The National Association of Realtors released the August data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales sagged for the third straight month in August."
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -1.5 was an increase of 8.2 from the previous month's -31.3. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of -13.0.
With this morning's release of the July S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.44% decrease month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 16% YoY increase. This is reduced to -0.86% after adjusting for inflation.
This morning's release of the August New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 685K, up 28.8% month-over-month from a revised 532K in July. The Investing.com forecast was for 500K. The median home price is now at $437K.
The headline number of 108 was an increase of 4.4 from the final reading of 103.6 for August.
Fifth District manufacturing was flat in September, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index is at 0 in September compared to -8 in August.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for July. U.S. house prices were down 0.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 13.9% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is down 0.31% in June and up 3.68% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
The latest new orders number at -0.2% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com -0.4% estimate. The series is up 8.8% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.2% MoM and up 6.1% YoY.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for September. The latest general business activity index came in at -17.2, down 4.3 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to a neutral value in August from +0.29 in July. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in August, but three categories deteriorated from July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.01 in August from –0.08 in July
The S&P 500 spent four out of five days in the red this week, tumbling on Friday. The index is down 22.51% YTD and is 23% below its record close.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through August. The latest debt level is down 1.3% month-over-month.
The latest full set UIG for August is 4.51% while the prices-only measure is 6.02%. Current Headline CPI is now 8.26% and Core CPI is 6.32%.
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes Initial Jobless Claims through 9/17.
The latest index came in at 1, down 10 from last month, indicating "slow" expansion in September and its lowest since July 2020. The future outlook fell to 9. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for August was down 0.3% from the July final figure of 116.2.
This morning's release of the August Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.80 million units from the previous month's 4.82 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 4.7 million. The latest number represents a 0.5% decrease from the previous month and a 19.9% decrease YoY.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for August puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 8.26%. It is well above the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 2.30%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index data last week. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.26%, down from 8.52% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.32%, up from 5.91% the previous month.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for August new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.575M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.445M and is a 12.2% increase from the previous month's 1.404M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for August new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.517M was down 10% from the July reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.610M.
August's ZHVI came in at $356,026, up 0.3% from the previous month and up 16.5% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.4% MoM and 9.6% YoY.