Commentary

A Plow Horse With Shin Splints

Our position on the economy has been that the US is headed for a recession, but we’re not quite there yet.

Commentary

This Rally Shouldn't Last

It’s that special time of the year, and we will all hear and read a great deal about Black Friday, Thanksgiving Weekend, and Cyber Monday during the next few days. Many pundits are going to make sweeping conclusions about the economy based on these very limited reports.

Commentary

The Aftermath Economy

We will forever believe that locking down the economy for COVID-19 was a massive mistake. There is virtually no evidence that death rates were lowered by government mandates and lockdowns.

Commentary

Beware a "Gridlock Rally"

Election day is tomorrow and will bring results for key Senate, House, and Governors races from all around the country, plus local legislative races and more.

Commentary

How Fast, How High, How Long

The Federal Reserve plans to keep raising rates at future meetings, but at a slower pace than it has for the last four meetings.

Commentary

Drop in Budget Deficit is a "Sugar High"

After nearly three years of the economic and financial market distortion due to COVID lockdowns, money printing, and massive government borrowing, some of these distortions are subsiding

Commentary

The Last Hurrah?

Most investors we talk to think the US is already in a recession or that a recession will start by the end of 2022. We think they’re wrong on both counts.

Commentary

Second Thoughts on Bernanke's Nobel Prize

The Nobel Prize in Economics was recently awarded to former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, as well as professors Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig, for their work on understanding the role banks play in the economy, especially during a financial crisis.

Commentary

Reports: Solid Growth, Persistent Inflation

Recent economic reports further undermine the politically-motivated argument from earlier this year that the US was already in a recession.

Commentary

No Recession, Yet

We are not “recession deniers,” we just don’t think one has started yet.

Commentary

More Trouble Ahead

We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede

Commentary

Another 75... With More to Come

The Federal Reserve once again voted unanimously to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point - 75 basis points (bps) - today, bringing the target for the federal funds rate to 3.00 – 3.25%, and signaled expectations for continued hikes ahead.

Commentary

Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation?

We know many people think we are beating a dead horse, but this horse is far from dead.

Commentary

The Fed: What to Expect and What to Watch

If you’re still wondering how much the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next week, you should wonder no more: the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points), just like it did back in both June and July.

Commentary

Outlook Home Prices Plateauing, Rents Catching Up

The housing sector surged during COVID in large part due to loose money.