Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Overall Decline Continues

This article was originally written by Doug Short. From 2016-2022, it was improved upon and updated by Jill Mislinski. Starting in January 2023, AP Charts pages will be maintained by Jennifer Nash at Advisor Perspectives/VettaFi.

The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Participants of the survey indicate the relative level of general business conditions in the region. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a reliable direction of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.

The latest manufacturing index came in at -10.4, up 20.9 from last month, marking the index's ninth negative reading in a row. The six-month outlook was down 8.8 points from last month and remains in negative territory for the third straight month at -10.3. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.

The -10.4 headline number came in above the -19.8 forecast.