Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Was Flat

This article was originally written by Jill Mislinski. Starting in January 2023, AP Charts pages will be maintained by Jennifer Nash at Advisor Perspectives/VettaFi.

The latest index came in at -1, up 3 from last month's revised figured, indicated a slower pace of decline compared to December. The future outlook declined by 2. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

Tenth District manufacturing activity was mostly flat, and expectations for future activity moderated slightly (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). Monthly survey price indexes saw minimal growth in January. Price indexes remained above year-ago levels for most firms, and many firms expected some slowing in price gains over the next six months.

The month-over-month composite index was -1 in January, up slightly from -4 in December and -2 in November (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Factory growth was driven more by activity at durable goods plants in January, especially wood product, machinery, and transportation equipment manufacturing. Month-over-month indexes remained mostly negative, but the pace of decline slowed compared to December. While employment and material inventory indexes were positive in January, and the new orders, backlog, and new orders for exports indexes continued to decline. Year-over-year factory indexes decreased further in January, and the composite index slowed from 15 to 4. The future composite index decreased from 6 to 3 in January with the new orders for exports and finished goods inventories indexes moving into negative territory this month.

Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Kansas City Manufacturing Composite

The next chart is an overlay of the general and future outlook indexes — the outlook six months ahead. Future factory indexes declined to 3.

For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.