Fourth Quarter 2022

What You Need to Know

Inflation remains persistently high, dominating everything else in the macro outlook. Until inflation is declining in a sustainable way, investors should not expect support from central banks. We expect market volatility to be with us for the next several months at least.

Key Forecast Trends

  • Near-term, inflation will remain elevated. We anticipate at least another 100–150 b.p. of tightening from major central banks in the next few months.
  • There are already signs of an economic slowdown globally, but household finances are robust, corporate balance sheets are strong, and the global financial system does not seem particularly vulnerable to asset price bubbles.
  • We also expect the Chinese economy to rebound in 2023 after a poor performance in 2022— another reason to expect the coming downturn to be milder rather than more severe.
  • In financial markets, higher interest rates, lower equity prices and wider credit spreads are, unfortunately, part of the solution to the inflation problem. Much of the work has already been done, but we think it is nonetheless premature to sound the all-clear.