Rock and a Hard Place

Behind the Curve

Weak Demand

Excess Confidence

Dallas and the Oil Patch

Two weeks after SIC ended, I’m beginning to assimilate everything. Different pieces are connecting in my head. I’d like to tell you I have a vision for uninterrupted peace and prosperity. Sadly, that’s not the case. Good things are coming, but not just yet.

For now, we are stuck in an awkward interregnum. It looks like the economy will grow for a while, just not very fast. And we simply don’t know what will happen when the Federal Reserve tightens in the face of a slowing economy. Housing is clearly slowing, as are certain kinds of consumer spending. But consumers seem intent upon spending on experiences and travel. I’ve been traveling this week, and I can tell you the hotels and airports are full, as well as restaurants. This may give the Fed additional room to tighten without hurting growth.

While we don’t know everything that’s coming, some of it is probably not good. In other words, we are between a rock and a hard place. That’s not a great position, but you can survive it if the rock doesn’t fall. The best solution: keep your eyes open… and keep moving.