With “Team Persistent” having clearly prevailed over “Team Transitory” in the debate over the nature of today’s surging inflation, the question now is whether prices can be tamed without also causing a recession. The historical evidence suggests not, leaving central banks to choose between bad and worse options.
NEW YORK – In 2021, the big debate about the outlook for the global economy focused on whether the rising inflation in the United States and other advanced economies was transitory or persistent. Key central banks and most Wall Street researchers were on “Team Transitory.” They attributed the problem to base effects and temporary supply bottlenecks, implying that the high inflation rate would rapidly fall back to central banks’ 2% target range.
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