Is A Bear Market Lurking?

Is there a bear market lurking in the shadows?

Such seems to be the question everyone is asking me as of late. Over the last couple of weeks, we have reviewed the bullish and bearish cases for the market.

In those discussions, I tried to balance the bullish and bearish arguments into some actionable strategies over the next few weeks. The purpose of analyzing both views is to minimize confirmation bias, which can negatively impact portfolios over time.

“When investors seek out information that confirms their existing opinions and ignore facts or data that refutes them, such may skew the value of their decisions based on their own cognitive biases. This psychological phenomenon occurs when investors filter out potentially useful facts and opinions that don’t coincide with their preconceived notions.” – Investopedia

While analyzing the shorter-term probabilities of a further advance or decline, the case for a more significant lurking bear market within the next 18-months solidified. Such is the context of today’s post.

The Risk Of Prognostications

However, there are a few disclaimers before we dig into the technical and fundamental concerns.