Inflation and Broken Windows

Gripping Hand Update
Back with a Vengeance
Broken Window Fallacy
Robinhood, GameStop, et al.

I’m often asked if I foresee inflation or deflation. This week we had an “Ask Me Anything” session for Alpha Society members and it came up several times. Both are possible in their own ways, and frankly I feel a little funny telling people I think we will see both. I would just like to have a growing economy and dependable money that holds its value.

But for these letters, I have to distinguish between what I want and what I expect. The kind of stability I prefer isn’t on the menu right now. So today we will wrap up my 2021 forecast series with a look at this important debate.

By the way, my Over My Shoulder macro research service members already saw full versions of some of the reports I’ll quote below. If you aren’t one of them, now is a great time to join. Where else can you find an essay from a music lawyer comparing Robinhood to Napster? It was totally on point. Technology quickly transformed that industry. If you are in the market you need to understand those changes. Someone will become the financial equivalent of Spotify.

That’s the kind of unique analysis my co-editor Patrick Watson and I find for Over My Shoulder members. We try to help them understand the critical points of our society and economics. Our goal is to give them economic and financial news without the noise... and I think we’re succeeding.

Until Sunday, January 31, you can get Over My Shoulder for just $9.95 a month—a 33% discount—so take a look here.

Now on with today’s topic. We will begin with the obvious.