US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Resilience and Vulnerability in Emerging Markets

Here are highlights of their conversation:

  • ”If we have the anticipated combination of a Biden presidency and a Republican Senate, I think we should certainly expect reduced trade uncertainty, and I think less disruptive foreign policy…Biden himself is very much seen as an establishment globalist, which means that his election would signal a US return potentially to the Paris Accord, to the Transpacific Partnership and possibly even the Obama Iranian deal. So, it would be a potential positive bump from multinationals and governmental organizations.” – Andrew Ness
  • ”What we’ve seen with COVID is clearly a response of global multinationals rethinking their supply chains. I think that favors to some extent a number of these ASEAN countries; however…China has the benefit of huge operating scale, vast tracks of land and established infrastructure. So, I don’t think we’re going to see a significant chunk of manufacturing relocate, but certainly at the margin, these countries are well-positioned to benefit from that that continued offshoring from the mainland.” – Andrew Ness
  • “I think that [South] Korean opportunities, given the valuations we see in the country, to us are very exciting. And that’s particularly in some of the leading technology names there. I think in emerging markets, the e-commerce opportunity remains appealing, and that’s across a range of countries—in Taiwan and China and Russia and Korea and Latin America.” – Andrew Ness
  • “There’s an inherent resilience to Russia that I think people underestimate…and I think there’s a lot more common interests between the two countries and that people realize.” – Andrew Ness
  • “I think Brazil is a market where the country and the people have had a very tough time. I really hope they’ve got the resilience and the stability to get through this. And if they do, I think there’s a tremendous opportunity given the country’s demographic profile and its abundance of natural resources and agricultural goods. There’s a lot going for Brazil hopefully in coming years.” – Andrew Ness