Timeline to the New Normal

Landmarks Ahead
Disruptive Caution
1930s Ahead
Changes and Corrections

Like everyone else, I am weary of this pandemic mess. I want to travel freely, enjoy dinner with friends, hug, and shake hands.

And, of course, I want everyone who lost jobs and businesses to get them back. I wasn’t thrilled with the economy a year ago, but I’d take it again in a heartbeat.

Alas, that’s not going to happen. The recovery in front of us will be slower than we like. History shows improvement over time. Extreme poverty keeps dropping significantly every decade, although this year was a major setback. But that trend will eventually return. We will get through this. Yet the world on the other side will be different. In some ways, it will be better, primarily because of technology innovation, but don’t expect the old world of 2019 to return. It’s gone.

Having a general idea of where we are going is great, but how we get there is important, too. Today I want to make some informed speculation about how the next year will unfold. We’re going to reach some key decision points in the coming months and you’ll make better decisions if you think about them before we get there.

In a way, this is like getting the full schedule when your child goes to school. When you know when their vacations are, when grades come out, when games are played, it’s easier to do planning. Sometimes those dates are inconvenient, but it’s better to know the schedule.