Credit-Driven Train Crash, Part 1

Cycling Economies
Corporate Debt Disaster
Blowing the Whistle
My Writing Productivity Secret
Chicago, Orange County, Raleigh

In last week’s letter, I mentioned an insightful comment my friend Peter Boockvar made at dinner in New York: “We now have credit cycles instead of economic cycles.” That one sentence provoked numerous phone calls and emails, all seeking elaboration. What did Peter mean by that statement?

I vividly remembered that quote because it resonated with me. I’ve been saying for some time that the next financial crisis will bring a major debt crisis. But as you’ll see today, it is a small part, maybe the opening event, of a rapidly-approaching train wreck. We’ll need several weeks to tease out all the causes and consequences, so this letter will be the first in a series. These will be some of the most important letters I’ve ever written. Something is on the tracks ahead and I don’t see how we’ll avoid hitting it. So, read these next few letters carefully.

First, a reminder that today is the deadline to sign up for Over My Shoulder to get the special welcome package we set up for you and a guarantee your $9.95 monthly subscription fee will never go up.

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On another note, at the end of this letter I will tell you how I have increased my writing productivity several times over with an inexpensive but amazingly powerful software program. Time is money, so you may also find it valuable.

Now, let’s talk about the coming train crash.