Year of the Octopus, Part 2

Optimism and Hong Kong
Easterling: Correction and Continuation
Jensen: The US Is 1980s Japan
Lebowitz: Buy the Dip?
Lewitt: Charts Point to Caution
Insights from Lacy Hunt
Housel: What a Time to Be Alive
Boston and Baltimore

Only two weeks in and 2018 is already breaking records – mostly in a good way. But that leaves 50 potentially less enjoyable weeks to go. So rather than focus on promising current events, I think I’d better dip back into my annual forecast bag and share a few more highlights with you.

Getty Images

First, let me mention that you have just two days left to accept your Alpha Society invitation. After January 15, society membership will be closed for at least another year. So if “stop procrastinating” is one of your New Year’s resolutions, here’s your chance to get off to a good start. (Plus, you can try Alpha Society out for 30 days and get a refund if you don’t think it’s a good fit.)

Looking down the road, I think this is going to be Alpha Society’s best year. Just in the next couple of months, we have our first-ever quarterly conference call with the Mauldin Economics editors, Alpha Society-only get-togethers at the SIC, and lots more. I hope you’ll join us.

Last week I called 2018 “the Year of the Octopus” because it has so many tentacles. There are many more than eight, so I should probably have made it the Year of the Centipede. In any case, let’s run through a few more projections from my still-growing pile.

Optimism and Hong Kong

Two years ago, when I was at the same Bank of America Merrill Lynch investment conference that I attended last week in Hong Kong, the mood in the room was quite somber, even bearish. The sentiment, shared by many at that gathering, turned out to be wrong.

Last week (while still suffering mightily from jet lag) I had a good conversation with my host, Ajay Kapur (who could not have been more delightful), in which we noted the mood of this year’s conference, which was almost universally upbeat. There was a clear consensus among these very seasoned and powerful traders. Given how wrong the mood was last time, Ajay and I wondered whether we should perhaps be a little trepidatious about the Chinese, Hong Kong, and other Asian markets. I’m not sure what to make of the mood this year, but I just thought I would share that experience. Now let’s move on to the forecasts of some of my other friends.