Closing Developing Countries’ Capital Drain

NEW YORK – Developing countries are bracing for a major slowdown this year. According to the UN report World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016, their growth will average only 3.8% this year – the lowest rate since the global financial crisis in 2009 and matched in this century only by the recessionary year of 2001. And what is important to bear in mind is that the slowdown in China and the deep recessions in the Russian Federation and Brazil only explain part of the broad falloff in growth.

True, falling demand for natural resources in China (which accounts for nearly half of global demand for base metals) has had a lot to do with the sharp declines in these prices, which have hit many developing and emerging economies in Latin America and Africa hard. Indeed, the UN report lists 29 economies that are likely to be badly affected by China’s slowdown. And the collapse of oil prices by more than 60% since July 2014 has undermined the growth prospects of oil exporters.

The real worry, however, is not just falling commodity prices, but also massive capital outflows. During 2009-2014, developing countries collectively received a net capital inflow of $2.2 trillion, partly owing to quantitative easing in advanced economies, which pushed interest rates there to near zero.

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© Project Syndicate

© Project Syndicate

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